Reading STEM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track STEM free→Reading STEM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track STEM free→NYSEUtilitiesUtilities - RenewableSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes, and the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with the company trading below typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 84% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. If STEM cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $7.87. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $7.31 STEM trades at 0× p/s, below its 3× p/s peer median. Our $54 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $10–$12. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 84% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated weak grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=906).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.07x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated fragile grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=832).
Not enough signal yet.
13 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Utilities names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-1.82 → $-1.88 (-3.1% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Not enough price history for this read.
How much price usually moves either way.
Not enough price history for this read.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,705.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows the company is managing costs well. It can support growth plans.
Confirms:Cash from operations goes up each quarter.
Disproves:Cash from operations goes down each quarter.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for STEM yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Slides in connection with the press release are available on the Stem Investor Relations website at https://investors.stem.com/stock-and-financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx. In accordance with General Instructions B.2. of Form 8-K, the information will not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), nor will it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “S…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$10.00 – $12.00 (median $10.75) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-11
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Renewable Electricity.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
STEM Stem Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 16 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
CWEN Clearway Energy, Inc. (Class C) | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 13 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ORA Ormat Technologies | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
MWH Solv Energy Inc | — | — | moderate |
CWEN-A Clearway Energy, Inc. (Class A) | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 6 of 100 | — | low |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management has reaffirmed the full year 2026 revenue guidance of $140M to $190M.
Focus on improving cash flow from operating activities, which has fluctuated significantly.
Management aims to achieve positive net income, addressing current losses.
Why it matters: Positive net income shows the company is profitable. This can boost investor confidence.
Confirms:The company reports positive net income in the next earnings report.
Disproves:The company reports a net loss again in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can change strategy and performance. This may affect how investors feel.
Confirms one read:New leadership is appointed with a strong track record in the industry.
Confirms the other:Changes in leadership can create more instability. This can lead to uncertainty in strategy.
Why it matters: Reaffirming revenue guidance shows confidence in growth. It helps stabilize investor trust.
Confirms:Management says the revenue guidance for 2026 is still the same.
Disproves:Management revises down the full year 2026 revenue guidance.
The filing pertains to the amendment and restatement of a compensatory plan.
Changes in Registrant’s Certifying Accountant. (a) On March 12, 2026, the Audit Committee of the Board of Directors (the “ Board ”) of Stem, Inc. (the “ Company ”) approved the dismissal of Deloitte & Touche LLP (“ Deloitte ”) as the Company’s independent registered public accounting firm. The Company accordingly notified Deloitte of such action on March 13, 2026. Deloitte’s report on the Company’s consolidated financial statements as of December 31, 2024 and December 31, 2025, did not contai…
Slides in connection with the press release are available on the Stem Investor Relations website at https://investors.stem.com/stock-and-financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx. In accordance with General Instructions B.2. of Form 8-K, the information will not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), nor will it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Sec…
Other Events. On March 6, 2026, the Stem, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an Open Market Sales Agreement SM (the “Sales Agreement”) with Jefferies LLC (the “Agent”), as sales agent and/or principal, providing for an “at-the-market” equity offering program pursuant to which the Company may issue and sell from time to time shares of its common stock, par value $0.0001 per share, having an aggregate offering price of up to $30,000,000 (the “Shares”) to or through the Agent in ordinary brokers’…