Reading SAFX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SAFX free→Reading SAFX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SAFX free→NASDAQUtilitiesUtilities - RenewableSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality is fragile, and management's track record is volatile. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Its earnings yield is above the sector (a relatively high yield). The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 0 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $0.34. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Not enough valuation methods to set a 12-month read yet.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated weak grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=906).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.30x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated fragile grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=832).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
31 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Utilities names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $-0.05. 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 2 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$569.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$1,870.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $9,609.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Production updates help track progress. The goal is 40-43 million gallons by 2027.
Confirms:In Q2, production levels went over 10 million gallons.
Disproves:No updates or production levels below 5 million gallons in Q2.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SAFX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement Private Placement Issuances On June 11, 2026, XCF Global, Inc. (the “ Company ”), entered into securities purchase agreements with certain accredited investors (the “ Purchase Agreement ”) pursuant to which the Company agreed to issue an aggregate of 4,000,000 shares (the “ Shares ”) of its Class A common stock, par value $0.0001 (“ Common Stock ”) for aggregate gross proceeds of approximately $600,000.00 at a purchase price per share of $0.15. The S…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
No score history yet for this stock.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Renewable Electricity.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SAFX XCF Global, Inc. | — | — | elevated |
CWEN Clearway Energy, Inc. (Class C) | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 13 of 100 | — | moderate |
ORA Ormat Technologies | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
MWH Solv Energy Inc | — | — | moderate |
CWEN-A Clearway Energy, Inc. (Class A) | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 6 of 100 | — | low |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
XCF Global aims to achieve net revenue between $110 million and $120 million by the end of 2027.
XCF Global plans to produce approximately 40 to 43 million gallons of renewable fuel by the end of 2027.
XCF Global targets an EBITDA of $65 million to $70 million by the end of 2027.
Why it matters: Positive EBITDA trends are important. They help reach the $65-70M target by 2027.
Confirms:EBITDA reported at -$5 million or better in Q2.
Disproves:EBITDA remains below -$10 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Achieving over 100% growth is crucial to meet the $110-120M revenue target by 2027. It shows the company is on track.
Confirms:Q2 revenue was over $700,000. This shows strong growth.
Disproves:Q2 revenue is below $350,000. This shows weak growth.
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. The information set forth in
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement Private Placement Issuances On May 22, 2026, XCF Global, Inc. (the “ Company ”), entered into a securities purchase agreement (the “ Brown Stone Agreement ”) with Brown Stone Capital Ltd. (“ Brown Stone ”), pursuant to which the Company agreed to issue 13,333,340 shares (the “ Brown Stone Shares ”) of its Class A common stock, par value $0.0001 (“ Common Stock ”) for aggregate gross proceeds of approximately $2 million at a price per share of $0.15.…
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. The information set forth in
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement Encore DEC, LLC Debt Reduction and Equity Capitalization Increase On May 6, 2026, the Company, New Rise Renewables Reno, LLC (“ New Rise Reno ”), a subsidiary of the Company, and Encore DEC, LLC (“ Encore ”) entered into a payable acknowledgement and settlement agreement (the “ Encore Agreement ”), pursuant to which approximately $16.7 million of outstanding accounts payable due to Encore DEC will be settled through the issuance of 37,033,386 shares…