Reading NRGV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NRGV free→Reading NRGV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NRGV free→NYSEUtilitiesUtilities - RenewableSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed, and it has a capital-unfriendly stance. Peer multiples imply a price about 6% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If NRGV cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $4.12. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $4.12 NRGV trades at 3× p/s, in line with its 3× p/s peer median. Our $3.67 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 12% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 100%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated weak grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=906).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.49x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
22 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Utilities names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.12 → $-0.12 (-6.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 60% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$363.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$1,008.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,091.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company is still losing money. This is key for investors.
Confirms:Earnings report shows a larger loss than the previous quarter.
Disproves:Earnings report shows a smaller loss or a profit.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NRGV yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Energy Vault Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The press release contains forward-looking statements regarding the Company, and includes cautionary statements identifying important factors that could cause actual results to differ mater…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Renewable Electricity.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NRGV Energy Vault Holdings Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | full | elevated |
CWEN Clearway Energy, Inc. (Class C) | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 13 of 100 | — | moderate |
ORA Ormat Technologies | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
MWH Solv Energy Inc | — | — | moderate |
CWEN-A Clearway Energy, Inc. (Class A) | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 6 of 100 | — | low |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Targeting $150-$200 million in total cash at the end of 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operating activities was negative $53.8M in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress towards the $150-$200M cash target by year-end 2026.
“Targeting $150-$200 million in total cash at year-end 2026.”
“Targeting $150-200 million in total cash at the end of 2026.”
Targeting full year 2026 gross margin of 15%-25%.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Gross profit was $4.8M on $21.9M revenue in 2026-Q1, suggesting a gross margin of approximately 22%, aligning with the 15%-25% target for 2026.
“Targeting full year 2026 gross margin of 15%-25%.”
“Estimating full year 2026 gross margin of 15-25%.”
Reaffirming full year 2026 revenue guidance of $225-$300 million.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue was $21.9M in 2026-Q1, indicating a need for significant growth to meet the $225-$300M target for 2026. Current trajectory shows limited progress towards this goal.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 17, 2026, Energy Vault Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The press release contains forward-looking statements regarding the Company, and includes cautionary statements identifying important factors that could cause actual results…
of the Company’s Current Report on Form 8-K filed on February 18, 2026, which information is incorporated herein by reference, and the indenture and form of note which are filed as exhibits to that Form 8-K are incorporated herein by reference.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Indenture and Notes On February 17, 2026, Energy Vault Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) completed its previously announced private offering (the “Offering”) of $140.0 million aggregate principal amount of 5.250% Convertible Senior Notes due 2031 (the “Notes”). The Notes were issued pursuant to an indenture, dated February 17, 2026 (the “Indenture”), between the Company and U.S. Bank Trust Company, National Association, as trustee. The Notes are genera…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant As previously disclosed on February 18, 2026 on a Current Report on Form 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, on February 17, 2026, Energy Vault Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued and sold $140.0 million aggregate principal amount of its 5.250% Convertible Senior Notes due 2031 (the “Initial Notes”) in a transaction exempt from the registration requirements of…
“Reaffirming full year 2026 guidance with strong, double-digit growth.”
“Estimating full year 2026 revenue of $225-300 million.”