Energy Vault Holdings Inc (NRGV)

NYSEUtilitiesElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$2.55-1.54%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Energy Vault Holdings Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	239.41M
EPS	—	0.077
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$270M–$310M	294.32M
EPS	—	-0.346
Gross margin	20%–25%GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	511.68M
EPS	—	-0.192

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain stable capital allocation and limit dilution	A supporting condition in Energy Vault Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is No large unplanned equity sales or debt increases.	Under Pressure	Significant unplanned equity sales or debt increase	Qualitative: 2 new debt obligations (Aug-Sep 2026) vs no large unplanned equity/debt target Company entered new financing and credit agreements in Aug/Sep 2026, increasing debt obligations. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve $150-$200 million free cash flow in 2026	The company expects $150-$200M free cash flow in 2026.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $150 million in FY26	Free cash flow: $-39.712M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $150 million free cash flow. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 11, 2026-39,712,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve 15%-25% gross margin in 2026	It targets 15%-25% gross margin.	Intact	Gross margin falls below 15% in FY26	Gross margin: 30.95% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 15% gross margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 11, 202630.951696 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9b8944e8-9ba5-49fb-bc6c-20e493a09c66. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. GAAP gross margin improved from 29.6% in 2025-Q2 to 31.0% in 2026-Q2 (+140 bps). Management narrowed 2026 full-year GAAP gross margin guidance to 20-25%, lifting the low end to 20%, showing progress and delivery on margin expansion. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve $225-$300 million revenue in 2026	A primary condition in Energy Vault Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= $225 million total revenue.	Intact	Revenue falls below $225 million in FY26	Revenue: $17.369M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $225 million total revenue. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 11, 202617,369,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9b8944e8-9ba5-49fb-bc6c-20e493a09c66. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$306,075,040	4 / 5
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$306,975,040	4 / 5
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$306,975,040	4 / 5
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$306,975,040	4 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$306,975,040	4 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$306,975,040	4 / 5
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$306,975,040	4 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$306,975,040	4 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	3	0	1
2026-06-01	3	1	1
2026-07-01	4	1	1
2026-08-01	4	1	1
2026-09-01	4	0	1
2026-10-01	4	0	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain stable capital allocation and limit dilutionPublished status: Under Pressure
Achieve $150-$200 million free cash flow in 2026Free cash flow: $-39.712M
Achieve 15%-25% gross margin in 2026Gross margin: 30.95%
Achieve $225-$300 million revenue in 2026Revenue: $17.369M

Next proof point

Nov 10, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

4.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-61.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Energy Vault Holdings Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk growth business, not a proven durable compounder, with recent financial performance still weak and earnings still loss-making. The multi-year view is in a watch state: management is making progress on its 2026 goals, but the evidence is not yet enough to establish consistent execution.

What's priced into Energy Vault Holdings Inc

NRGV is valued cheaply versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are not especially demanding. The snapshot labels pricing as justified and fragility as low, but that does not remove the risk tied to losses, volatile management, and a recent increase in the risk label.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth, higher guidance, and improved gross margin support continued operational progress; cash also rose in the latest quarter toward management’s year-end goal. However, the company remains loss-making, the sector backdrop is a headwind, and the estimated chance of a near-term miss is elevated enough to warrant attention. A reversal of recently raised guidance would also damage management credibility.

What Energy Vault Holdings Inc hinges on

The multi-year thesis hinges on management delivering its 2026 revenue, margin, and cash goals without reversing guidance. In the near term, a miss or guidance cut would weaken confidence, while lower interest rates and stronger results from major Utilities peers could improve the sector backdrop.