Reading CWEN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CWEN free→Reading CWEN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CWEN free→NYSEUtilitiesUtilities - RenewableSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with CWEN compared to sector peers being below typical. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 0 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $38.61. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
We can't anchor a clean multiple for CWEN right now, so treat our $3.88 fair value as low-confidence. Analysts: $41–$60. Not investment advice.
$41.00 – $60.00 (median $45.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-05-27
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 866% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated weak grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=906).
Over the trailing year it converted 110.44x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated robust grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=832).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.45 → $0.49 (+8.8% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 91% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 49.3% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$114.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$289.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,412.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'expensive' to 'None'.
Valuation changed. The valuation label moved from "expensive" to "None." Risk remained moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind. Recent financial performance is weak.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This guidance helps us understand cash flow. Changes can impact how investors feel.
Confirms:Management reaffirms or raises the CAFD guidance during the next earnings call.
Disproves:Management cuts the CAFD guidance below $470M. This shows possible cash flow problems.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CWEN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 15, 2026, Clearway Energy, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that Kevin P. Malcarney will retire from his position as Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary of the Company, effective June 1, 2026 (the “Transition Date”). In connection with his retirement, on May 11, 2026, Mr. Malcarney entered into a transition servic…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Renewable Electricity.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CWEN Clearway Energy, Inc. (Class C) | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 13 of 100 | — | moderate |
ORA Ormat Technologies | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
MWH Solv Energy Inc | — | — | moderate |
CWEN-A Clearway Energy, Inc. (Class A) | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 6 of 100 | — | low |
FLNC Fluence Energy, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 28 of 100 | fair | elevated |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Utilities names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Maintain the 2026 full year CAFD guidance range of $470 million to $510 million.
Focus on growing revenue through strategic initiatives and operational improvements.
Why it matters: If revenue growth in the utility sector speeds up, it may mean a better outlook for Clearway Energy.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year in the next quarterly report.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key focus. Strong growth signals Clearway's market position and demand.
Confirms:Clearway reports revenue growth higher than 5% year over year in Q2 earnings.
Disproves:Revenue growth is reported below 5% year over year in Q2 earnings.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key priority for Clearway. It indicates overall business health and market position.
Confirms:Reported revenue growth exceeds 6% year over year in the Q2 earnings report.
Disproves:Revenue growth falls below 3% year over year in the Q2 earnings report.
Why it matters: The FOMC meeting may change interest rates. This can affect utility sector performance and Clearway's costs.
Confirms one read:Utility sector performance gets better after the FOMC meeting. This shows good interest rate conditions.
Confirms the other:Utility sector performance gets worse after the FOMC meeting. This shows bad interest rate conditions.
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. On October 3, 2025, Cardinal Purchaser LLC (the “ Clearway Purchaser ”), a subsidiary of Clearway Energy, Inc. (the “ Company ”), entered into a Purchase and Sale Agreement (the “ Clearway Purchase Agreement ”) with Deriva Energy, LLC (“ Deriva Seller ”), Symphony Breeze, LLC (“ Breeze Seller ”) and Symphony Sun, LLC (“ Sun Seller ”, and together with Deriva Seller and Breeze Seller, the “ Sellers ”). Pursuant to the terms of the Clearway Purchase A…