Stem Inc (STEM)
NYSEUtilitiesRenewable UtilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-09
$5.37-4.79%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRenewable UtilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Stem aims to grow revenue to about $165 million in 2026. The company targets improving cash flow and achieving positive net income. Management has reaffirmed revenue guidance despite recent losses. The stock trades cheaply versus peers with potential upside.
Stem is loss-making with fragile quality and volatile management. Cash flow remains negative and net income is still deeply negative. Recent earnings misses and officer changes raise risks. The stock has fallen sharply and faces sector headwinds.
The market prices in about 13% revenue growth and values Stem well below our fair value estimate of $31.3. Street targets are around $10.75, reflecting skepticism. Our view is more optimistic on revenue growth and turnaround potential.
Breaks if: Gross margin falls below 40%
Breaks if: Cash from operating activities remains negative or worsens
Net income remains deeply negative or deteriorates
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story in the utilities sector, facing headwinds. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent financial performance has been weak, and the company is loss-making.
The market appears to have priced in a low expectation for performance, as indicated by a significant expectations gap. Valuation is considered cheap compared to peers, but the overall sentiment remains fragile due to sector turbulence.
Management has reaffirmed guidance for 2026, showing commitment to operational improvements. However, the company is still loss-making, and there is a notable risk of missing future estimates given the high miss probability.
Key factors to watch include management's ability to maintain guidance and improve operational leverage. Additionally, changes in interest rates and performance from sector leaders could influence STEM's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports growth expectations. The company reaffirmed its full year 2026 revenue guidance, which also reinforces the outlook. There are no new threats impacting the thesis at this time.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Full year 2026 revenue falls below $140 million
Management has reaffirmed the full year 2026 revenue guidance of $140M to $190M.
The outlook for STEM over the next 1 to 3 years is uncertain, with a focus on operational improvements amid a challenging sector backdrop. Not investment advice.