Stem Inc (STEM)

NYSEUtilitiesRenewable UtilitiesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$3.01-0.33%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Stem Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	45.5M
EPS	—	-1.354
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$140M–$190M	147.38M
EPS	—	-6.544
EBITDA	$10M–$15Mnon-GAAP	—
Gross margin	40%–50%non-GAAP	—
Operating cash flow	$0–$10M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	170.91M
EPS	—	-5.572

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Gross margin near 45% in 2025	A supporting condition in Stem Inc's published investment case. The stated target is ~45%.	Intact	Gross margin falls below 40%	Gross margin: 41.26% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~45%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 12, 202641.26404 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2495672d-cabc-4878-98ea-a423e6992693. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Cash from operating activities improves from negative levels	The company targets improving cash flow and achieving positive net income.	Improving	Cash from operating activities remains negative or worsens	Cash from operations: $342,000 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: cash from operating activities improves toward positive territory. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 13, 2026342,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net income moves toward positive territory	The company targets improving cash flow and achieving positive net income.	Improving	Net income remains deeply negative or deteriorates	Net income: $-14.383M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net income improves toward positive. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 12, 2026-14,383,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2495672d-cabc-4878-98ea-a423e6992693. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Full year 2026 revenue reaches at least $140 million	A primary condition in Stem Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=140 USD_MILLIONS.	Intact	Full year 2026 revenue falls below $140 million	Revenue: $33.654M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=140 USD_MILLIONS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 12, 202633,654,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2495672d-cabc-4878-98ea-a423e6992693. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$182,391,470	2 / 6
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$182,391,470	2 / 6
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$182,391,470	2 / 6
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$182,391,470	2 / 6
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$182,391,470	2 / 6
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$182,391,470	2 / 6
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$182,391,470	2 / 6
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	0	7
2026-06-01	0	7
2026-07-01	0	7
2026-08-01	0	7
2026-09-01	1	6
2026-10-01	1	5

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BMO CapitalOct 21

$5.00New observation · no comparable prior

SusquehannaOct 14 · prior Jul 10

$7.50 → $4.50-40.0%

$0$4.13$8.25

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Gross margin near 45% in 2025Gross margin: 41.26%
Cash from operating activities improves from negative levelsCash from operations: $342,000
Net income moves toward positive territoryNet income: $-14.383M
Full year 2026 revenue reaches at least $140 millionRevenue: $33.654M

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-70.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Stem Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk, loss-making growth business, not yet a proven durable compounder. Its multi-year thesis is in a watch state, with operating progress offset by financial weakness and performance below its industry cohort.

What's priced into Stem Inc

The valuation model describes STEM as cheap versus peers, with a small premium to peers and low confidence in that assessment. Its negative expectations gap suggests current expectations are not especially supportive, but the evidence does not show that weak performance or the recent listing-rule notice is fully reflected.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, adjusted EBITDA was positive in both supplied quarters and rose from $2.0 million in Q1 to $6.2 million in Q2, while software revenue continued to grow at a slower year-over-year rate in Q2. Backlog increased, but ARR progress remains limited relative to year-end guidance, and the company is still loss-making. The October 23 delisting or continued-listing-rule notice adds near-term uncertainty; the next guidance update is an important execution test.

What Stem Inc hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on continued operating leverage, progress toward full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance, and stronger recurring-revenue growth. A guidance cut would weaken the case, while lower interest rates or continued strength among sector bellwethers could provide a supportive backdrop. The listing-rule issue also needs attention, but the evidence snapshot gives no details on its resolution.