Reading STBA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track STBA free→Reading STBA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track STBA free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is neutral. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, STBA is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 9% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $47.32. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $47 STBA trades at 13× p/e, in line with its 12× p/e peer median. Our $43 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 9% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.08x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.89 → $0.91 (+2.2% / 30d). 5 raised, 2 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 14% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$77.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$220.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,338.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company maintains strong operating income and net income growth.
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings show net income growth above 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings report shows net income growth below 0% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for STBA yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (d) As previously reported in the Original 8-K, on October 29, 2025 , the Board of Directors (the "Board") of S&T appointed Stephanie Nycum Doliveira to serve on the Board, effective immediately. Ms. Doliveira was also appointed as a director of S&T Bank, effective immediately. At the time of Ms. Doliveira's appointment, the committees of the Board…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
STBA S&T Bancorp, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 59 of 100 | full | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to increase the dividend per share as part of capital allocation strategy.
Focus on maintaining strong operating income through disciplined cost management.
Aim to increase net income through strategic initiatives and operational efficiency.
Why it matters: Slower deposit growth may show weaker customer ties. This can affect funding.
Confirms:Total deposits grow less than 11.5% annualized in the next quarter.
Disproves:Total deposits grow at 11.5% or more each year.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could impact S&T Bancorp's performance and outlook.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth drops below its median of 13% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth stays above the median of 13% year over year.
Why it matters: A rise in net charge-offs could signal worsening asset quality. This would affect investor confidence.
Confirms:Net charge-offs exceed $1.7 million in the next quarter.
Disproves:Net charge-offs remain at or below $1.7 million.
Why it matters: A dividend increase shows good financial health. It also shows a commitment to giving cash back to shareholders.
Confirms:The board announces a dividend increase above the current $0.37 per share.
Disproves:The board decides to keep the dividend at $0.37 per share or lower it.
of this Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Exchange Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference…
Other Events. The board of directors of S&T Bancorp, Inc. (S&T), the holding company for S&T Bank, approved a $0.37 per share cash dividend on April 29, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 . This is an increase of $0.01, or 2.78 percent, compared to a cash dividend of $0.36 per share declared in the prior quarter and an increase of $0.03, or 8.82 percent, compared to a cash dividend of $0.34 per share declared in the same period in the prior year. The annualiz…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 2, 2026 S&T Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”) and S&T Bank entered into an amended and restated employment agreement (the “Employment Agreement”) with the Company’s Chief Executive Officer, Christopher McComish, which agreement amends and restates the existing terms of employment and compensation of Mr. McComish. The Employment Agreement is ef…
of this Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Exchange Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference…