S&T Bancorp, Inc. (STBA)

NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$50.52-0.41%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge S&T Bancorp, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.9%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.00 → 4.04 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	108.36M
EPS	—	1.02
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	107.42M
EPS	—	0.993
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	423.28M
EPS	—	3.993
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	439.31M
EPS	—	4.036

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Dividend per share increases to at least $0.37	It keeps increasing dividends, now $0.37 per share.	Intact	dividend per share falls below $0.36	Dividend per share: $0.37 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.37 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20260.37 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e5983fcd-b5e2-4790-bebc-34c680d35f7c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net income increases to at least $35 million next quarter	S&T Bancorp grows net income steadily, reaching $35 million next quarter.	Intact	net income falls below $33 million	Net income: $36.643M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=35 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202636,643,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e5983fcd-b5e2-4790-bebc-34c680d35f7c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income stays at or above $44 million	Operating income rises to $44 million, showing good cost control.	Intact	operating income falls below $42 million	Operating income: $30.604M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=44 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202630,604,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue decline limited to no worse than -11% next year	A supporting condition in S&T Bancorp, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=-11% YoY.	Intact	revenue decline exceeds -11% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.04

$3.81 → $4.04 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.44B

$0.44B → $0.44B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.81	$435,129,800	7 / 5
2026-07-25	$3.84	$435,609,800	7 / 5
2026-07-26	$3.84	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-27	$3.84	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-28	$3.84	$435,609,800	7 / 5
2026-07-29	$3.84	$435,609,800	7 / 5
2026-07-30	$3.98	$438,530,330	7 / 6
2026-07-31	$3.98	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-01	$3.98	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-02	$3.98	$438,530,330	7 / 6
2026-08-03	$3.98	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-04	$3.98	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-05	$3.98	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-06	$3.98	$438,530,330	7 / 6
2026-08-08	$3.98	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-09	$3.99	$437,430,330	7 / 6
2026-08-10	$3.99	$437,430,330	7 / 6
2026-08-12	$3.98	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-13	$3.99	$437,430,330	7 / 6
2026-08-14	$3.98	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-15	$3.98	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-16	$3.98	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-17	$3.98	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-18	$3.98	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-19	$3.98	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-20	$3.99	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-21	$3.99	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-22	$3.99	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-23	$3.99	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-24	$3.99	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-25	$3.99	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-26	$3.99	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-27	$3.99	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-28	$3.99	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-29	$3.99	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-30	$3.99	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-31	$3.99	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-01	$3.99	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-02	$3.99	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-03	$3.99	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-04	$3.99	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-05	$3.99	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-06	$3.99	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-07	$3.99	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-08	$3.99	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-09	$3.99	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-10	$3.99	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-11	$3.99	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-12	$3.99	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-13	$3.99	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-14	$3.99	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-15	$3.99	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-16	$3.99	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-17	$3.99	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-18	$3.99	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-19	$3.99	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-20	$3.99	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-21	$3.99	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-22	$3.99	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-23	$3.99	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-24	$4.00	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-25	$4.00	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-26	$4.00	$437,697,000	6 / 5
2026-09-27	$4.00	$437,697,000	6 / 5
2026-09-28	$4.00	$437,697,000	6 / 5
2026-09-29	$4.00	$437,697,000	6 / 5
2026-09-30	$4.00	$437,697,000	6 / 5
2026-10-01	$4.00	$437,697,000	6 / 5
2026-10-02	$4.00	$438,340,017	6 / 5
2026-10-03	$4.00	$438,406,683	6 / 5
2026-10-04	$4.00	$438,406,683	6 / 5
2026-10-05	$4.00	$438,406,683	6 / 5
2026-10-06	$4.00	$438,406,683	6 / 5
2026-10-07	$4.00	$438,406,683	6 / 5
2026-10-08	$4.00	$438,406,683	6 / 5
2026-10-09	$4.00	$438,406,683	6 / 5
2026-10-10	$4.00	$438,406,683	6 / 5
2026-10-11	$4.00	$438,406,683	6 / 5
2026-10-12	$4.00	$438,406,683	6 / 5
2026-10-13	$4.00	$438,406,683	6 / 5
2026-10-14	$4.00	$438,406,683	6 / 5
2026-10-15	$4.00	$438,406,683	6 / 5
2026-10-16	$4.00	$438,406,683	6 / 5
2026-10-17	$4.00	$438,406,683	6 / 5
2026-10-18	$4.00	$438,406,683	6 / 5
2026-10-19	$4.00	$438,406,683	6 / 5
2026-10-20	$4.00	$438,406,683	6 / 5
2026-10-21	$4.00	$438,406,683	6 / 5
2026-10-22	$4.00	$438,406,683	6 / 5
2026-10-23	$4.01	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-24	$4.04	$439,313,667	6 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	1	6
2026-06-01	1	6
2026-07-01	1	6
2026-08-01	1	6
2026-09-01	1	6
2026-10-01	1	6

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Dividend per share increases to at least $0.37Dividend per share: $0.37 per share
Net income increases to at least $35 million next quarterNet income: $36.643M
Operating income stays at or above $44 millionOperating income: $30.604M
Revenue decline limited to no worse than -11% next yearDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-11.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

S&T Bancorp, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

STBA is a financial-sector business whose thesis depends on customer and loan growth, credit quality, and disciplined capital use. The current thesis is in a watch state: recent performance is below its industry cohort, but the evidence does not show a fresh break in the longer-term case.

What's priced into S&T Bancorp, Inc.

Valuation is tagged as stretched, with STBA at a modest premium to peers and expectations broadly aligned with the evidence. The expectations gap is limited, while the low fragility rating suggests the setup is not marked by a broad combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulent conditions.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the October earnings miss and sharp drops in company momentum and composite insight make execution a concern. Revenue rose between Q2 and Q3, but portfolio loans declined modestly in Q3; nonperforming assets fell, while net charge-offs increased. Management’s growth and credit priorities show mixed progress, and the sector backdrop is a headwind.

What S&T Bancorp, Inc. hinges on

A guidance cut on the next call would add a meaningful negative, while continued estimate reductions and recent peer misses raise the near-term execution risk. The multi-year view also depends on whether customer and loan growth resume, credit quality remains disciplined, and capital deployment supports the stated priorities. Fed rate cuts could weigh on the sector, while stronger results and guidance from sector bellwethers could support its momentum.