Reading SRBK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SRBK free→Reading SRBK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, while management's recent track record has been fairly steady. However, the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Peer multiples imply a price about 22% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening, as it is priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as both could significantly impact SRBK's outlook. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $18.90. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $19, SRBK's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 47× p/e (3.9× the 12× p/e peer median). That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $16 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 21% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.97x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.14 → $0.13 (-7.1% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$64.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$171.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $828.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The sector is easing. If SR Bancorp's revenue growth drops, it signals potential trouble ahead.
Confirms:Revenue growth reported below the median of 15% in upcoming earnings.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median of 15%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SRBK yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events On May 21, 2026, SR Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that it had authorized its third stock repurchase program for up to 10% of the Company’s outstanding shares of common stock (801,320 shares) to be initiated upon completion of its second stock repurchase program. A copy of the press release announcing the stock repurchase program is included as exhibit 99.1 to this report and is incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SRBK SR Bancorp, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | full | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
SR Bancorp plans to initiate its third stock repurchase program for up to 10% of outstanding shares.
Newly stated in 2026-Q3. SR Bancorp announced its third stock repurchase program for up to 10% of outstanding shares. This initiative follows the completion of its second repurchase program. The financials do not yet reflect the impact of this new program.
“SR Bancorp announced its third stock repurchase program for up to 10% of outstanding shares.”
SR Bancorp continues to declare a quarterly dividend of $0.05 per share.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Dividend per share remained at $0.05 from 2025-Q4 to 2026-Q2. This consistent dividend policy reflects stable capital allocation, with no change in the dividend amount over the period.
SR Bancorp aims to achieve EPS guidance of $0.32 for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q3. EPS guidance is set at $0.32 for the fiscal year ending 2026-Q3. Current diluted EPS for 2026-Q3 is $0.12, indicating progress towards the target but requiring further improvement to meet the guidance.
Why it matters: Unemployment claims can signal economic health. Rising claims may hurt SR Bancorp's business outlook.
Confirms:Weekly claims rise above 300,000.
Disproves:Weekly claims fall below 250,000.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 28, 2026, SR Bancorp, Inc., the holding company for Somerset Regal Bank, issued a press release reporting its financial results for the three and nine months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release announcing the results is included as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 22, 2026, Somerset Regal Bank, the wholly-owned subsidiary of SR Bancorp, Inc., and William Taylor, Christopher Pribula and David Orbach entered into amended and restated employment agreements. The employment agreements were updated primarily to reflect the recent change in titles of certain executive officers. The term of the employment a…
Other Events On March 19, 2026, the Board of Directors of SR Bancorp, Inc. announced that it had declared a cash quarterly dividend of $0.05 per share. The dividend will be paid on April 15, 2026 to stockholders of record as of March 31, 2026.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 28, 2026, SR Bancorp, Inc., the holding company for Somerset Regal Bank, issued a press release reporting its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release announcing the results is included as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any f…
“The Board declared a cash quarterly dividend of $0.05 per share.”
“The Board declared a cash quarterly dividend of $0.05 per share.”
“The Board declared a cash quarterly dividend of $0.05 per share.”
“Guidance for EPS is set at $0.32 per basic share for the fiscal year.”