Reading SPRB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SPRB free→Reading SPRB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SPRB free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed, and it is priced below typical for sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 27% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening, as it is priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. If SPRB cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $47.10. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $50 SPRB trades at 21× p/s — 2.2× the 9× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $69 fair value is low-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 28% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated weak grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=2391).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.79x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
20 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-5.72 → $-5.82 (-1.7% / 30d). 3 raised, 1 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 192.6% above current price.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$313.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$1,022.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $7,421.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If health care sector growth picks up, it could benefit Spruce. It may signal a better environment for all companies in the space.
Confirms:Health care sector revenue growth accelerates back toward its highs.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth is slowing down. This shows there are still challenges ahead.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SPRB yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 13, 2026, Spruce Biosciences, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026 and providing corporate updates. The full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The Company also reported cash and cash equivalents of $107.3 million as of April 30, 2026. This estimate is preliminary…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SPRB Spruce Biosciences Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on advancing the biologics license application (BLA) submission for TA-ERT by the fourth quarter of 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management has consistently emphasized the goal of submitting the BLA for TA-ERT by Q4 2026. Despite the recurring focus, financials show a net income loss of $12.27M in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress in financial stability. The trajectory shows persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
“We are very pleased with the meaningful progress we continue to make in advancing TA-ERT...”
“The BLA submission for TA-ERT is anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2026.”
“The company expects its cash and cash equivalents to fund its current operating plan into early 2027, beyond the anticipated BLA submission for TA-ERT.”
Ensure that cash and cash equivalents are sufficient to fund operations into early 2027.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash and cash equivalents were $107.3M as of April 30, 2026. Despite the cash position, the company reported a net income loss of $12.27M in 2026-Q1, indicating financial challenges. The trajectory shows recurring focus, narrow delivery so far.
“The company expects its cash and cash equivalents to fund its current operating plan into early 2027...”
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On April 20, 2026, Spruce Biosciences, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with Leerink Partners LLC, Guggenheim Securities, LLC and Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., as representatives of the several underwriters listed therein (collectively, the “Underwriters”), to issue and sell 1,150,000 shares (the “Shares”) of the Company’s common stock, par value $0.0001 per share (the “Common Stock”) at a price to…
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 16, 2026, Spruce Biosciences, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Termination Agreement (the “Termination Agreement”) with Kaken Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (“Kaken”) to terminate by mutual agreement that certain Collaboration and License Agreement, dated as of January 5, 2023, by and between the Company and Kaken (the “Collaboration Agreement”). The Collaboration Agreement will terminate effective as of March 31, 2026 (the “Termination Da…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 9, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing its financial results for the full year ended December 31, 2025 and providing corporate updates (the “Press Release”). The full text of the Press Release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. All of the information furnished in this
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 9, 2026, Spruce Biosciences, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an Open Market Sale Agreement SM (the “Sales Agreement”) with Jefferies LLC (“Jefferies”). Under the Sales Agreement, the Company may offer and sell, from time to time, through Jefferies as its sales agent and/or principal, shares (the “Shares”) of its common stock, par value $0.0001 per share (the “Common Stock”), having an aggregate offering amount not exceeding the Maximum Pr…
“The company expects its cash and cash equivalents to fund its current operating plan into early 2027...”