Reading SLP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SLP free→
Simulations Plus, Inc. (SLP)
NASDAQHealth CareHealth Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$18.24+11.42%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, SLP trades above typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 40% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Health Care
- Industry
- Health Information Services
- Market cap
- $329.75M
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2009-01-14
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-13
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $18.24. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$13.07consensus
Range $10.38 – $15.44
vs price: +40% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearexpensive
$10.58consensus
Range $8.78 – $13.15
vs price: +72% above
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peershigh confidence
At $18 SLP trades at 18× p/e, in line with its 16× p/e peer median. Our $13 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
17.7x
peer 15.6x · own history —
Premium
1.1x peer
Growth the price needs
39%
our forecast 4%
Our fair value
$12.82
range $10.38 – $15.32
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 39% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
76th pctl · Health Care
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -0.39x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutral7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearish5 analysts, 43% Buyfor period ending 2026-08-31
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.15 → $0.15 (+2.7% / 30d). 0 raised, 5 cut, 5 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 43% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: is in (~0.5 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$176.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$499.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,549.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · valuation_labelsmall change
Valuation label changed from 'full' to 'expensive'.
The valuation changed. It moved from full to expensive. Risk is elevated. The sector backdrop is a headwind. Earnings quality is loss-making. Recent financial performance is strong.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for revenue growth speeding up in the sector
Why it matters: If the health care sector's growth speeds up, it may help SLP's performance. This could signal a better environment for the company.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:The health care sector's revenue growth is speeding up. It is getting close to 10% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth continues to slow below 5% year over year.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SLP yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth re-acceleration in Health Care
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If SLP reverses course and raises guidance next quarter (came in LOWERED as of 2026-04-09), that's a sharp positive shift. The Street usually rewards a 'crisis averted' bounce-back.
- If sector bellwethers like VEEV, BTSG, and TEM keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Healthcare sector momentum should keep lifting SLP and other Healthcare names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If SLP beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a solid beat of +13% on the 2026-02-28 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for SLP and other Healthcare names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like VEEV, BTSG, and TEM start missing or guiding lower, the Healthcare tailwind helping SLP and other Healthcare names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-161d agoItem 7.01
Regulation FD Disclosure. On June 16, 2026, Simulations Plus, Inc., a California corporation (the “Company”), issued a press release announcing the execution of an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Merger Agreement”) by and among the Company, SP Evolution HoldCo II, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company and an affiliate of Altaris, LLC (“Parent”), and SP Evolution BidCo II, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company and a wholly owned subsidiary of Parent (“Merger Sub”), pursuant to which…
Legal / regulatorynegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-3.0 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.