Reading SFNC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SFNC free→Reading SFNC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SFNC free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is steady, and management's recent track record has been fairly steady. However, the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Peer multiples imply a price about 10% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $22.00. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $22 SFNC trades at 12× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $24 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 10% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Not enough signal yet.
Over the trailing year it converted -1.33x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.50 → $0.52 (+4.7% / 30d). 6 raised, 0 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 43% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$81.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$229.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,756.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
The signal label changed from mixed to mild favorable. Risk fell. The sector backdrop remains a headwind. Earnings quality is loss making, and management is neutral.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial strength. It shows care for shareholders.
Confirms:Announcement of keeping or raising the dividend per share.
Disproves:Announcement of a dividend cut or pause.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SFNC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As discussed further below, on May 13, 2026, Simmons First National Corporation (“Corporation”) held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders (“Meeting”), at which five proposals were submitted to the Corporation’s shareholders for consideration and approval. At the Meeting, the Corporation’s shareholders approved the Amended and Restated Simmons First N…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SFNC Simmons First National Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | fair | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on delivering disciplined growth and designing a more efficient and scalable infrastructure.
Improve net interest income profitability and optimize capital allocation.
Commitment to maintaining the dividend per share at consistent levels.
Why it matters: Strong loan growth signals effective execution of the company's growth strategy. It shows demand for loans and can boost earnings.
Confirms:Total loans grow more than 10% annualized in the next quarter.
Disproves:Total loans growth falls below 5% annualized in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Net interest income is important for making money. Growth shows good use of capital.
Confirms:Q2 net interest income growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 net interest income growth is below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company can improve its financial condition. Investors will focus on revenue and profit trends.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: A stable or rising net interest margin shows good cost control and pricing. This helps make more money.
Confirms:Net interest margin remains above 3.80% in the next quarter.
Disproves:Net interest margin drops below 3.70% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising the dividend shows financial strength. It also shows a promise to give value to shareholders.
Confirms:Dividend per share is declared at $0.2150 or higher in the next quarter.
Disproves:Dividend per share is cut below $0.2150 in the next quarter.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth drops below median, it may affect Simmons' performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth falls below its median of 13% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median of 13% year over year.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can affect how a company runs. Stability is important for investor trust.
Confirms one read:No new executive changes are expected in the next quarter.
Confirms the other:More big executive changes are expected in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Earnings growth is important for investor trust. It shows the company's financial health and success.
Confirms:Adjusted earnings per share exceeds $0.50 in the next quarter.
Disproves:Adjusted earnings per share falls below $0.45 in the next quarter.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 16, 2026, the Registrant issued a press release, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information provided pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (“Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities under that Section and shall not be deemed to be…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 27, 2026, Simmons First National Corporation (“Corporation”), Simmons Bank (“Bank”), and James M. Brogdon entered into a First Amendment to Executive Change in Control Severance Agreement (“Amendment”). The Amendment amends the Executive Change in Control Severance Agreement dated July 30, 2021, among the Corporation, the Bank, and Mr.…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. James M. Brogdon - Compensatory Arrangement In connection with Mr. Brogdon’s previously disclosed appointment as the Company’s president and chief executive officer, on January 28, 2026, the Board approved the following 2026 compensation package for Mr. Brogdon: (i) an annual base salary of $900,000, (ii) a cash incentive award with a target amount…
Other Events. On February 17, 2026, Simmons First National Corporation (“Company” or “Simmons”) issued a press release, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference, announcing that its board of directors authorized a new stock repurchase program (“New Program”) under which the Company may repurchase up to $175,000,000 of its Class A common stock (“Common Stock”) currently issued and outstanding. The New Program will be executed in accordance with…