Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC)

NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$23.31-0.04%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Simmons First National Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.30 → 2.30 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	253.33M
EPS	—	0.563
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	250.41M
EPS	—	0.552
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1B
EPS	—	2.079
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.03B
EPS	—	2.304

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS at or above $2.07 in FY26	Profit margins remain stable with EPS around $0.47 per quarter.	Broken	EPS falls below $2.07 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.46 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.07 EPS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20260.46 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 459bb30a-10b5-4183-864d-ed662b958a95. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth at or above -10% in FY26	A primary condition in Simmons First National Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >= -10% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below -10% in FY26	Revenue growth: -2.33% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= -10% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026-2.330941 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 459bb30a-10b5-4183-864d-ed662b958a95. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain active share repurchase program	A supporting condition in Simmons First National Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is Sustain announced buyback program.	Intact	No buyback activity or cancellation of program	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.30

$2.20 → $2.30 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.03B

$1.05B → $1.03B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.20	$1,046,324,180	6 / 7
2026-07-25	$2.20	$1,046,324,180	6 / 7
2026-07-26	$2.20	$1,046,324,180	6 / 7
2026-07-27	$2.20	$1,046,324,180	6 / 7
2026-07-28	$2.20	$1,046,324,180	6 / 7
2026-07-29	$2.20	$1,046,324,180	6 / 7
2026-07-30	$2.20	$1,046,338,950	5 / 5
2026-07-31	$2.20	$1,046,338,950	5 / 5
2026-08-01	$2.20	$1,046,338,950	5 / 5
2026-08-02	$2.20	$1,046,338,950	5 / 5
2026-08-03	$2.20	$1,046,338,950	5 / 5
2026-08-04	$2.20	$1,046,324,180	6 / 7
2026-08-05	$2.20	$1,046,324,180	6 / 7
2026-08-06	$2.20	$1,046,324,180	6 / 7
2026-08-08	$2.20	$1,046,324,180	6 / 7
2026-08-09	$2.20	$1,046,338,950	5 / 5
2026-08-10	$2.20	$1,046,338,950	5 / 5
2026-08-12	$2.20	$1,046,338,950	5 / 5
2026-08-13	$2.20	$1,046,324,180	6 / 7
2026-08-14	$2.20	$1,046,338,950	5 / 5
2026-08-15	$2.20	$1,046,338,950	5 / 5
2026-08-16	$2.20	$1,046,338,950	5 / 5
2026-08-17	$2.20	$1,046,338,950	5 / 5
2026-08-18	$2.20	$1,046,338,950	5 / 5
2026-08-19	$2.20	$1,046,338,950	5 / 5
2026-08-20	$2.20	$1,046,338,950	5 / 5
2026-08-21	$2.20	$1,046,338,950	5 / 5
2026-08-22	$2.20	$1,046,338,950	5 / 5
2026-08-23	$2.20	$1,046,338,950	5 / 5
2026-08-24	$2.20	$1,046,338,950	5 / 5
2026-08-25	$2.20	$1,046,338,950	5 / 5
2026-08-26	$2.20	$1,046,338,950	5 / 5
2026-08-27	$2.20	$1,046,338,950	5 / 5
2026-08-28	$2.20	$1,046,338,950	5 / 5
2026-08-29	$2.20	$1,046,338,950	5 / 5
2026-08-30	$2.20	$1,046,338,950	5 / 5
2026-08-31	$2.20	$1,046,338,950	5 / 5
2026-09-01	$2.20	$1,046,338,950	5 / 5
2026-09-02	$2.20	$1,046,338,950	5 / 5
2026-09-03	$2.20	$1,046,338,950	5 / 5
2026-09-04	$2.20	$1,046,338,950	5 / 5
2026-09-05	$2.25	$1,046,338,463	5 / 5
2026-09-06	$2.25	$1,046,338,463	5 / 5
2026-09-07	$2.25	$1,046,338,463	5 / 5
2026-09-08	$2.25	$1,046,338,463	5 / 5
2026-09-09	$2.27	$1,048,322,241	5 / 5
2026-09-10	$2.30	$1,050,261,240	5 / 5
2026-09-11	$2.30	$1,050,261,240	5 / 5
2026-09-12	$2.30	$1,050,261,240	5 / 5
2026-09-13	$2.30	$1,050,261,240	5 / 5
2026-09-14	$2.30	$1,050,261,240	5 / 5
2026-09-15	$2.30	$1,050,261,240	5 / 5
2026-09-16	$2.30	$1,050,261,240	5 / 5
2026-09-17	$2.30	$1,050,261,240	5 / 5
2026-09-18	$2.30	$1,050,261,240	5 / 5
2026-09-19	$2.30	$1,050,261,240	5 / 5
2026-09-20	$2.30	$1,050,261,240	5 / 5
2026-09-21	$2.30	$1,050,261,240	5 / 5
2026-09-22	$2.30	$1,050,261,240	5 / 5
2026-09-23	$2.30	$1,050,261,240	5 / 5
2026-09-24	$2.30	$1,050,261,240	5 / 5
2026-09-25	$2.30	$1,050,602,098	6 / 6
2026-09-26	$2.30	$1,050,602,098	6 / 6
2026-09-27	$2.30	$1,050,602,098	6 / 6
2026-09-28	$2.30	$1,050,602,098	6 / 6
2026-09-29	$2.31	$1,052,083,864	6 / 6
2026-09-30	$2.31	$1,052,083,864	6 / 6
2026-10-01	$2.31	$1,052,083,864	6 / 6
2026-10-02	$2.32	$1,052,241,007	6 / 6
2026-10-03	$2.32	$1,052,241,007	6 / 6
2026-10-04	$2.32	$1,052,241,007	6 / 6
2026-10-05	$2.32	$1,052,241,007	6 / 6
2026-10-06	$2.32	$1,052,241,007	6 / 6
2026-10-07	$2.32	$1,052,241,007	5 / 6
2026-10-08	$2.33	$1,052,241,007	5 / 6
2026-10-09	$2.33	$1,052,241,007	5 / 5
2026-10-10	$2.33	$1,052,241,007	5 / 5
2026-10-11	$2.33	$1,052,241,007	5 / 5
2026-10-12	$2.33	$1,052,241,007	5 / 5
2026-10-13	$2.33	$1,052,241,007	5 / 5
2026-10-14	$2.33	$1,052,241,007	5 / 5
2026-10-15	$2.33	$1,052,241,007	5 / 5
2026-10-16	$2.33	$1,052,241,007	5 / 5
2026-10-17	$2.33	$1,052,241,007	5 / 5
2026-10-18	$2.32	$1,042,853,135	6 / 6
2026-10-19	$2.30	$1,032,118,205	6 / 6
2026-10-20	$2.30	$1,032,118,205	6 / 6
2026-10-21	$2.30	$1,032,118,205	6 / 6
2026-10-22	$2.30	$1,032,118,205	6 / 6
2026-10-23	$2.30	$1,032,118,205	6 / 6
2026-10-24	$2.30	$1,032,118,205	6 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	3	4	0
2026-06-01	3	4	0
2026-07-01	3	4	0
2026-08-01	3	4	0
2026-09-01	5	4	1
2026-10-01	5	1	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Robert W. BairdOct 19

$25.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$13.75$27.50

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS at or above $2.07 in FY26Published status: Broken
Revenue growth at or above -10% in FY26Revenue growth: -2.33%
Maintain active share repurchase programDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-14.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Simmons First National Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a regional banking business with a cautiously improving, execution-led long-term thesis rather than a clear growth story. Recent signals have shifted from mixed to mildly favorable, though the overall thesis state remains insufficient because the financial history provided is limited.

What's priced into Simmons First National Corporation

The valuation evidence says SFNC is cheap versus peers, with a modest expectations gap and low fragility, meaning the setup is not flagged as unusually vulnerable to concentrated expectations. The evidence does not provide enough detail to describe the market’s specific assumptions, and the value factor is marked loss-making, so valuation support has limits.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the latest evidence is constructive: adjusted revenue and net interest margin rose from the second to the third quarter, while adjusted expenses declined and efficiency improved. Management is on track in growth and balance sheet optimization, with mixed evidence on expense control; a recent earnings beat and low estimated miss risk are positive, but recent peer misses remain a watch point.

What Simmons First National Corporation hinges on

The multi-year view depends on SFNC sustaining revenue growth, margin gains, and expense discipline. A guidance cut or Federal Reserve rate cuts would be unfavorable for the near-term setup, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.