Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-09
$22.92-1.25%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — EPS at or above $2.07 in FY26: FY26 EPS guide $0.50 vs $2.07 target.
Simmons First National grows revenue about 15% yearly. Profit margins remain stable with EPS around $0.47 per quarter. The bank has a moderate risk profile and trades at a reasonable price-to-earnings ratio near 12. It also buys back shares, supporting shareholder value.
Revenue is expected to decline about 10% next year. Earnings growth is modest and could stall. The bank faces pressure from a tough economic environment and may struggle to improve profitability.
The market prices in about 10% revenue decline and a 13% discount to fair value near $26. Our view expects modest growth above this, supported by stable earnings and buybacks.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $2.07 in FY26
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below -10% in FY26
Breaks if: No buyback activity or cancellation of program
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on disciplined growth and profitability. The current thesis state is insufficient due to recent performance history, making it challenging to assess the overall direction.
The market appears to price SFNC as cheap compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap. However, the valuation reflects a justified stance, indicating that the stock is not overly fragile despite recent challenges.
Management has shown a commitment to disciplined growth, as evidenced by loan growth and net interest income increases. However, there is a watch on net interest income profitability, and the company has a recent history of earnings misses, which adds some near-term risk.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain growth priorities and navigate sector dynamics. Key scenarios include the performance of sector bellwethers and any potential guidance cuts from SFNC, which could significantly impact sentiment.
In the next 1 to 3 years, SFNC's performance will depend on management execution and external sector influences. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings miss is a significant threat. This miss impacts confidence in future performance. The overall market backdrop has also turned negative.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.