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Sera Prognostics Inc (SERA)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical DevicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this week
$1.86+1.09%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly approach. However, risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with SERA trading below typical compared to sector peers. The read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Health Care
- Industry
- Medical Devices
- Market cap
- $73.23M
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2021-06-11
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-05
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 0 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1.86. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primary—
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-year—
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-year—
—
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
no read12-month view
Not enough valuation methods to set a 12-month read yet.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Compared to peers
897.9xP/S · peer median 3.0x
Looks more expensive than peers.
Compared to its own history
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
P/E
—
EV/EBITDA
—
FCF yield
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
36th pctl · Health Care
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted 0.84x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
stable1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +9.5% / 30d, n=3for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-0.18 → $-0.16 (+9.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 192.7% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: health care is in (~0.5 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- weak
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$242.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$711.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,112.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
highas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · signal_labelmoderate change
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'cautious'.
- score change · composite_insight_scoresmall change
Composite insight fell by 11.4 points (from -5.1 to -16.5).
As of June 15, 2026, the signal label changed to "cautious," indicating a shift in sentiment. The composite insight fell, reflecting a decrease in overall assessment. These changes suggest a more cautious outlook for the stock, with the risk remaining high and the sector backdrop described as a headwind.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayMedium confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for changes in sector performance that affect Sera.
Why it matters: Changes in healthcare can impact Sera's market position and how investors feel.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Healthcare sector revenue growth is speeding up again toward its highs.
Confirms the other:Healthcare sector revenue growth is slowing down.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SERA yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth re-acceleration in Health Care
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Downside triggers
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-0116d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 26, 2026, Jeffrey T. Elliott, a member of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Sera Prognostics, Inc. (the “Company”), notified the Company of his decision to resign from the Board effective as of June 4, 2026, the date of the Company’s Annual Stockholders Meeting (“Annual Meeting”). Mr. Elliott’s resignation was not as a result of any di…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-11 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.