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Vivid Seats, Inc. (SEAT)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-06-15
Intact
$6.89-11.21%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, though the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with performance compared to sector peers being typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 88% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while earnings quality is fragile. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Internet Content & Information
- Market cap
- $85.26M
- Employees
- 565
- IPO date
- 2021-11-05
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-04
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $6.89. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$66.64consensus
Range $66.64 – $66.64
vs price: -90% below
Method agreement — · 1 method
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$67.93consensus
Range $67.93 – $67.93
vs price: -90% below
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $6.89 SEAT trades at 0× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $54 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $5.65–$10. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
0.2x
peer 1.2x · own history —
Premium
0.1x peer
Growth the price needs
-87%
our forecast -24%
Our fair value
$53.50
range $53.50 – $53.50
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is above the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — value-trap risk12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 87% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -24%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Communication Services names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=701).
86th pctl · Communication Services
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted -0.03x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Communication Services names rated fragile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=525).
2nd pctl · Communication Services
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BearishEPS revised -15.9% / 30d, n=1for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-1.03 → $-1.19 (-15.9% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 30% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 10.3% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: communication services is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutralProvisional
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-15
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$434.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$1,095.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $8,655.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
highas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · signal_labelsmall change
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'mild_favorable'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for Q2 earnings report on August 4
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Vivid Seats can improve its financial performance. This is crucial given its current loss-making status.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows smaller losses or a return to making money.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows larger losses. There is no improvement in finances.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SEAT yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth cooling below 10% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like GOOGL, GOOG, and META keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Communication Services sector momentum should keep lifting SEAT and other Communication Services names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for SEAT and other Communication Services names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If SEAT raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If SEAT cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like GOOGL, GOOG, and META start missing or guiding lower, the Communication Services tailwind helping SEAT and other Communication Services names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-051mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 5, 2026, Vivid Seats Inc. (the “ Company ”) issued a press release providing financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026, a copy of which is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. The information set forth under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”), or incorporated by reference in any filing u…
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-6.8 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.