Vivid Seats, Inc. (SEAT)

NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-10-23

$2.71-0.73%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Vivid Seats, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	123.85M
EPS	—	-0.923
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	507.67M
EPS	—	-4.821
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	519.54M
EPS	—	-3.071

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve $30M to $40M adjusted EBITDA in 2026	Management plans $30M to $40M adjusted EBITDA.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $30 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Generate at least $20M unlevered free cash flow in 2026	It targets $20M free cash flow.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $20 million in FY26	Free cash flow: $-4.356M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $20 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026-4,356,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 3 quarters. Management targets approximately $20 million unlevered free cash flow for 2026. Cash from operating activities was positive at $46.0 million in 2026-Q1 and $45.2 million in 2026-Q2, indicating the company is generating operating cash flow consistent with the free cash flow guidance. The trajectory is delivering on cash flow generation. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve at least $535M revenue in 2026	A primary condition in Vivid Seats, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $535 million.	Intact	Revenue falls below $535 million in FY26	Revenue: $103.948M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $535 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026103,948,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 21b5e54d-080f-4a56-aade-bd630c7e08db. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management guided 2026 revenue at approximately $535 million and Marketplace GOV between $2.3 billion and $2.6 billion. Actual revenue declined from $165.2 million in 2024-Q4 to $129.9 million in 2026-Q2, indicating a challenging revenue trajectory despite the guidance. The company is reiterating growth targets but revenue has been declining over the recent quarters. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-3.07

Unavailable → $-3.07 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.52B

$0.53B → $0.52B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$526,292,270	1 / 10
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$526,292,270	1 / 10
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$526,292,270	1 / 10
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$526,292,270	1 / 10
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$526,292,270	1 / 10
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$526,291,000	3 / 8
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$526,292,270	1 / 10
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$526,292,270	1 / 10
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$526,291,000	3 / 8
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$526,292,270	1 / 10
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$526,291,000	3 / 8
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$526,291,000	3 / 8
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$526,291,000	3 / 8
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$526,292,270	1 / 10
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$519,692,970	1 / 9
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$519,708,129	3 / 7
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$519,692,970	1 / 9
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$519,692,970	1 / 9
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$519,692,970	1 / 9
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$519,708,129	3 / 7
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$519,708,129	3 / 7
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$519,708,129	3 / 7
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$519,708,129	3 / 7
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$519,708,129	3 / 7
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$519,708,129	3 / 7
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$518,352,045	3 / 7
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$518,351,095	3 / 7
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$518,351,095	3 / 7
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$518,351,095	3 / 7
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$518,351,095	3 / 7
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$518,351,095	3 / 7
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$519,534,306	3 / 7
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$519,534,306	3 / 7
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$519,534,306	3 / 7
2026-08-29	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-08-30	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-08-31	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-09-01	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-09-02	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-09-03	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-09-04	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-09-05	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-09-06	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-09-07	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-09-08	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-09-09	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-09-10	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-09-11	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-09-12	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-09-13	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-09-14	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-09-15	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-09-16	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-09-17	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-09-18	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-09-19	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-09-20	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-09-21	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-09-22	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-09-23	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-09-24	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-09-25	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-09-26	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-09-27	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-09-28	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-09-29	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-09-30	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-10-01	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-10-02	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-10-03	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-10-04	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-10-05	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-10-06	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-10-07	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-10-08	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-10-09	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-10-10	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-10-11	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-10-12	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-10-13	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-10-14	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-10-15	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-10-16	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-10-17	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-10-18	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-10-19	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-10-20	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-10-21	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-10-22	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-10-23	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7
2026-10-24	$-3.07	$519,544,179	5 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	3	7	1
2026-06-01	3	7	0
2026-07-01	3	7	0
2026-08-01	3	7	0
2026-09-01	3	7	0
2026-10-01	3	6	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve $30M to $40M adjusted EBITDA in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Generate at least $20M unlevered free cash flow in 2026Free cash flow: $-4.356M
Achieve at least $535M revenue in 2026Revenue: $103.948M

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-79.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Vivid Seats, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

SEAT is a higher-risk growth and profitability transition in Communication Services, not yet a proven durable compounder. The multi-year view is intact, and the recent signal improved from cautious to mixed, but evidence is uneven.

What's priced into Vivid Seats, Inc.

The valuation evidence is mixed: SEAT is described as cheap versus peers, while another measure shows a 9% premium; confidence in the valuation model is low. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility, but the evidence does not clearly establish what specific expectations the market assumes.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue remains under pressure: it fell from $165.2 million in 2024-Q4 to $129.9 million in 2026-Q2, despite management’s 2026 revenue goal. Adjusted EBITDA improved sequentially and guidance was raised, while operating cash flow has been positive; the latest quarter was an earnings miss, so delivery remains a key risk.

What Vivid Seats, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on SEAT making progress toward its 2026 revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and cash flow goals. A guidance cut after the recent raise would damage management credibility, while Fed rate cuts or continued strong results from sector leaders could support the sector backdrop.