Vivid Seats, Inc. (SEAT)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-09-09
$4.92-5.20%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Vivid Seats aims for $535M revenue in 2026. It targets $20M free cash flow. Management plans $30M to $40M adjusted EBITDA. The company beat earnings recently.
The company lost money last year and still expects losses. Revenue growth may slow below 17%. The stock price dropped 32% from its high.
The market expects about 17% revenue growth next year. Our fair value is much higher than the Street median. The stock price reflects recent losses and risks.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $30 million in FY26
Management aims for adjusted EBITDA in the range of $30 million to $40 million for the fiscal year 2026.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story in the Communication Services sector. The current thesis state is intact, despite recent mixed financial results and high near-term risks.
The market seems to price in a low expectations gap, suggesting that SEAT is viewed as cheap compared to its peers. However, the valuation reflects a justified stance given the company's loss-making status.
Management is focused on achieving specific revenue and EBITDA targets for 2026, but recent revenue declines raise concerns about meeting these goals. Adjusted EBITDA shows some improvement, while cash flow generation appears to be on track.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like GOOGL, GOOG, and META, which could influence SEAT's momentum. Additionally, any guidance cuts from SEAT would significantly impact credibility and market perception.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The recent sharp drop in SEAT's stock price suggests a repricing of the thesis. This follows a significant miss in earnings expectations, which raises concerns about credibility. However, the company still expects to achieve $30M-$40M in adjusted EBITDA and $535M in revenue for 2026.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $20 million in FY26
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $535 million in FY26
Overall, SEAT's trajectory will depend on its ability to stabilize revenue and navigate sector challenges. Not investment advice.