Reading DJT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DJT free→Reading DJT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DJT free→NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year, and risk is high. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, it is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 286% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis), and the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples without a growth justification. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $8.16. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $8.44, DJT's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 503× p/s (429.7× the 1× p/s peer median). That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $2.15 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 293% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Communication Services names rated weak grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=701).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.04x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLC
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$248.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$549.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,078.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Ongoing losses would confirm the company's weak financial health and cautious outlook.
Confirms:July earnings report shows losses greater than the previous quarter's losses.
Disproves:July earnings report shows a reduction in losses or a profit.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for DJT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. On May 26, 2026, Kevin McGurn, Interim Chief Executive Officer of Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (“TMTG” or the “Company”) was interviewed by Vince Molinari of Fintech TV. Among other things, the interview discussed the proposed business combination between TMTG and TAE Technologies, Inc. (“TAE”). A video of the interview is available at https://truthsocial.com/@truthsocial/posts/116641211101776191 and a copy of the transcript of the interview is attached hereto as Exhibit…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Interactive Media & Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
DJT Trump Media & Technology Group Corp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 3 of 100 | expensive | high |
GOOGL Alphabet Inc. (Class A) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
GOOG Alphabet Inc. (Class C) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
META Meta Platforms | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
RDDT REDDIT, INC. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | expensive | high |
16 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Communication Services names rated volatile grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=200).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
Why it matters: Growth in revenue for the sector may show a recovery. This could help DJT.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported as positive year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains negative year over year.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and the press release furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Departure of Chief Executive Officer On April 21, 2026, Trump Media & Technology Group Corp., a Florida corporation (the “Company”), announced that, as of such date (the “Transition Date”), Kevin J. McGurn will serve as Interim Chief Executive Officer and succeed Devin Nunes as the Company’s principal executive officer. The Company and Mr. Nunes en…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangement of Certain Officers. On April 6, 2026, Eric Swider notified Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (the “Company”) of his resignation from its Board of Directors (the “Board”), effective immediately. Mr. Swider’s resignation did not arise from or relate to a dispute with management or the Board. The Company thanks Mr. Swider for his distinguished service on the Board.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangement of Certain Officers. Robert Lighthizer notified Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (the “Company”) of his resignation from its Board of Directors (the “Board”) and the committees on which he served, effective March 6, 2026. Amb. Lighthizer’s resignation did not arise from or relate to a dispute with management or the Board. The Company thanks Amb. Lighthizer for his d…