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ZILLOW GROUP INC (ZG)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$33.51+2.52%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is robust, cash backs up profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 114% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Internet Content & Information
- Market cap
- $7.37B
- Employees
- 7,068
- IPO date
- 2015-05-12
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-05
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $33.51. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$15.64consensus
Range $11.70 – $17.59
vs price: +114% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$50.32consensus
Range $17.66 – $117.86
vs price: -33% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Re-ratinglow confidence
At $33 ZG trades at 24× p/e — 2.0× the 12× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $16 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $40–$75. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
23.7x
peer 12.1x · own history —
Premium
2.0x peer
Growth the price needs
102%
our forecast 13%
Our fair value
$16.16
range $12.84 – $17.39
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiveexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 114% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Communication Services names rated neutral grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=902).
58th pctl · Communication Services
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 7.61x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Communication Services names rated robust grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=525).
90th pctl · Communication Services
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bullish14 analysts, 56% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.45 → $0.45 (+0.4% / 30d). 1 raised, 11 cut, 14 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 56% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 58.2% above current price.
Material events
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: is in (~0.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- weak
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$209.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$457.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,286.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for cash from operating activities growth
Why it matters: More cash from operations means better financial health. It supports future investments.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Cash from operating activities grows by more than 15% year over year in Q2.
Disproves:Cash from operations goes down or increases by less than 5%.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-151d agoYahoo! Finance
Valuation insights support investment thesis.
Strongly reinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth cooling below 10% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like GOOGL, GOOG, and META keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Communication Services sector momentum should keep lifting ZG and other Communication Services names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for ZG and other Communication Services names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If ZG raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-06), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If ZG cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-06), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like GOOGL, GOOG, and META start missing or guiding lower, the Communication Services tailwind helping ZG and other Communication Services names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-0314d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On June 3, 2026, the Board approved an amendment (the “ Amendment ”) to the Company’s previously announced 2026 repurchase program (the “ 2026 Repurchase Program ”), pursuant to which the Board had authorized the repurchase of up to an additional $1.25 billion of the Company’s Class A common stock, Class C capital stock or a combination thereof. Pursuant to the Amendment, effective June 3, 2026, no repurchase of shares under the 2026 Repurchase Program is permitted if, after giv…
Capital allocationpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+5.4 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.