ZILLOW GROUP INC (ZG)

NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-10-23

$34.05-3.10%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge ZILLOW GROUP INC’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.6%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.88 → 2.90 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	710.77M
EPS	—	0.57
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	2.94B
EPS	—	2.221
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	3.28B
EPS	—	2.896

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash from operating activities rises to at least $200 million in Q1 2026	Cash from operations rose to $200 million in Q1 2026.	Recovered	Cash from operations falls below $200 million in Q1 2026	Cash from operations: $13M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=200 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 5, 202613,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operating activities was $200 million in 2026-Q1 but declined sharply to $11 million in 2026-Q2. The trajectory shows a decline in cash generation despite management focus. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating income improves to at least $36 million in Q1 2026	Zillow is improving profit with $36 million operating income in Q1 2026.	Broken	Operating income falls below $36 million in Q1 2026	Operating income: $-10M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=36 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 5, 2026-10,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 51b8f51d-6f20-4493-9fc0-343c4d79fd98. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income remains negative but improved slightly from -$11 million in 2025-Q4 to -$10 million in 2026-Q2. Net loss margin decreased by 80 basis points year over year in Q2. The trajectory shows limited progress toward improving operating income. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue grows about 16% in next 12 months	A primary condition in ZILLOW GROUP INC's published investment case. The stated target is >=16% YoY.	Broken	Revenue growth falls below 16% in next 12 months	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase share repurchase program by $1.25 billion in 2026	The company added $1.25 billion to its stock buyback program.	Intact	No increase in buyback authorization by mid-2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. The Board authorized and then amended the 2026 repurchase program to add $1.25 billion. In Q1, the company repurchased 13.5 million shares for $626 million and in Q2 repurchased 5.6 million shares for $200 million, showing active execution on the expanded buyback program. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.90

$3.02 → $2.90 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$3.28B

$3.37B → $3.28B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.02	$3,369,294,770	12 / 21
2026-07-25	$3.05	$3,371,350,610	15 / 29
2026-07-26	$3.05	$3,371,350,610	15 / 29
2026-07-27	$3.05	$3,371,350,610	15 / 29
2026-07-28	$3.02	$3,369,291,555	12 / 21
2026-07-29	$3.02	$3,369,291,555	12 / 21
2026-07-30	$3.05	$3,371,872,890	15 / 29
2026-07-31	$3.02	$3,369,831,913	12 / 21
2026-08-01	$3.02	$3,369,831,913	12 / 21
2026-08-02	$3.05	$3,369,371,560	15 / 28
2026-08-03	$3.01	$3,368,049,408	12 / 21
2026-08-04	$3.01	$3,368,049,408	12 / 21
2026-08-05	$3.05	$3,369,442,990	15 / 28
2026-08-06	$3.01	$3,368,049,408	12 / 21
2026-08-08	$2.97	$3,331,762,786	12 / 21
2026-08-09	$2.97	$3,331,762,786	12 / 21
2026-08-10	$2.97	$3,331,762,786	12 / 21
2026-08-12	$2.92	$3,300,937,940	15 / 29
2026-08-13	$2.92	$3,300,937,940	15 / 29
2026-08-14	$2.97	$3,331,762,786	12 / 21
2026-08-15	$2.97	$3,331,762,786	12 / 21
2026-08-16	$2.97	$3,331,762,786	12 / 21
2026-08-17	$2.97	$3,331,762,786	12 / 21
2026-08-18	$2.97	$3,331,762,786	12 / 21
2026-08-19	$2.97	$3,331,762,786	12 / 21
2026-08-20	$2.90	$3,297,492,306	13 / 21
2026-08-21	$2.90	$3,297,493,852	13 / 21
2026-08-22	$2.90	$3,297,493,852	13 / 21
2026-08-23	$2.90	$3,297,493,852	13 / 21
2026-08-24	$2.90	$3,297,493,852	13 / 21
2026-08-25	$2.90	$3,297,494,584	13 / 21
2026-08-26	$2.90	$3,297,004,799	13 / 21
2026-08-27	$2.90	$3,297,004,799	13 / 21
2026-08-28	$2.90	$3,297,004,799	13 / 21
2026-08-29	$2.90	$3,297,004,799	13 / 21
2026-08-30	$2.90	$3,297,004,799	13 / 21
2026-08-31	$2.90	$3,297,004,799	13 / 21
2026-09-01	$2.90	$3,297,004,799	13 / 21
2026-09-02	$2.90	$3,297,004,799	13 / 21
2026-09-03	$2.90	$3,297,004,799	13 / 21
2026-09-04	$2.90	$3,297,004,799	13 / 21
2026-09-05	$2.90	$3,297,004,799	13 / 21
2026-09-06	$2.90	$3,297,004,799	13 / 21
2026-09-07	$2.90	$3,297,004,799	13 / 21
2026-09-08	$2.90	$3,296,989,781	13 / 21
2026-09-09	$2.90	$3,296,989,781	13 / 21
2026-09-10	$2.90	$3,296,989,781	13 / 21
2026-09-11	$2.90	$3,296,980,238	13 / 21
2026-09-12	$2.90	$3,296,980,238	13 / 21
2026-09-13	$2.90	$3,296,980,238	13 / 21
2026-09-14	$2.90	$3,296,980,238	13 / 21
2026-09-15	$2.90	$3,295,156,291	13 / 21
2026-09-16	$2.90	$3,295,156,291	13 / 21
2026-09-17	$2.90	$3,295,156,291	13 / 21
2026-09-18	$2.90	$3,295,156,291	13 / 21
2026-09-19	$2.90	$3,295,156,291	13 / 21
2026-09-20	$2.88	$3,291,285,379	13 / 21
2026-09-21	$2.88	$3,291,285,379	13 / 21
2026-09-22	$2.88	$3,291,285,379	13 / 21
2026-09-23	$2.88	$3,291,285,379	13 / 21
2026-09-24	$2.88	$3,291,285,379	13 / 21
2026-09-25	$2.88	$3,291,283,837	13 / 21
2026-09-26	$2.88	$3,291,283,837	13 / 21
2026-09-27	$2.88	$3,291,283,837	13 / 21
2026-09-28	$2.88	$3,291,283,837	13 / 21
2026-09-29	$2.88	$3,291,283,837	13 / 21
2026-09-30	$2.88	$3,291,303,068	13 / 21
2026-10-01	$2.88	$3,291,303,068	13 / 21
2026-10-02	$2.88	$3,291,303,068	13 / 21
2026-10-03	$2.88	$3,291,303,068	13 / 21
2026-10-04	$2.91	$3,288,386,750	12 / 21
2026-10-05	$2.91	$3,288,386,750	12 / 21
2026-10-06	$2.91	$3,288,386,750	12 / 21
2026-10-07	$2.91	$3,288,386,750	12 / 21
2026-10-08	$2.91	$3,288,386,750	12 / 21
2026-10-09	$2.91	$3,288,386,750	12 / 21
2026-10-10	$2.91	$3,288,386,750	12 / 21
2026-10-11	$2.91	$3,288,386,750	12 / 21
2026-10-12	$2.91	$3,288,386,750	12 / 21
2026-10-13	$2.91	$3,284,511,778	12 / 21
2026-10-14	$2.90	$3,283,026,887	12 / 21
2026-10-15	$2.90	$3,283,026,887	12 / 21
2026-10-16	$2.90	$3,283,026,887	12 / 21
2026-10-17	$2.90	$3,283,026,887	12 / 21
2026-10-18	$2.90	$3,281,756,699	12 / 21
2026-10-19	$2.90	$3,281,756,699	12 / 21
2026-10-20	$2.90	$3,281,757,331	12 / 21
2026-10-21	$2.90	$3,281,757,331	12 / 21
2026-10-22	$2.90	$3,281,757,331	12 / 22
2026-10-23	$2.90	$3,281,757,331	12 / 22
2026-10-24	$2.90	$3,279,197,331	12 / 22

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	14	12
2026-06-01	14	11
2026-07-01	14	11
2026-08-01	14	13
2026-09-01	12	13
2026-10-01	12	14

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 14 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 12 · prior Oct 12

$21.00 → $31.00+47.6%

$0$17.05$34.10

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash from operating activities rises to at least $200 million in Q1 2026Cash from operations: $13M
Operating income improves to at least $36 million in Q1 2026Published status: Broken
Revenue grows about 16% in next 12 monthsPublished status: Broken
Increase share repurchase program by $1.25 billion in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-62.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

ZILLOW GROUP INC outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-focused, higher-risk business with loss-making earnings, rather than a proven profitable compounder. The 1-to-3-year thesis is intact, but its signal has recently shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.

What's priced into ZILLOW GROUP INC

ZG is expensive versus peers, with a 1.46 premium measure and a 0.28 expectations gap; confidence in these estimates is medium. The evidence flags the valuation as unjustified, though it does not show the broader combination of expensive valuation, weak fundamentals, and turbulence.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management is delivering on revenue growth priorities: second-quarter revenue rose 18% year over year, with Rentals up 31% and Mortgages up 75%. Operating income remains negative, and progress has been limited; elevated risk and a headwind sector backdrop temper the growth picture, while recent performance remains in the top half of the industry. A guidance cut on the next call is a meaningful risk, although the stated near-term miss probability is low.

What ZILLOW GROUP INC hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on whether revenue growth continues and operating losses improve without a guidance cut. Fed rate cuts could provide a sector tailwind, while continued strong earnings and guidance from GOOGL, GOOG, and META could support sector momentum. The available evidence does not establish how likely these favorable scenarios are.