Reading SBCF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SBCF free→Reading SBCF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SBCF free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral, indicating some inconsistency in cash backing reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may challenge growth. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. The valuation is based on being priced roughly in line with peer multiples. Key factors to watch include any guidance changes from SBCF and the performance of sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $31.12. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $31 SBCF trades at 15× p/e, in line with its 12× p/e peer median. Our $31 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 2% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 35%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.57x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.60 → $0.60 (+0.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 4 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$108.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$227.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,626.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
The signal label changed, indicating a shift to a mildly favorable outlook. The valuation label also changed, moving to a fair assessment.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Growth in net interest margin shows good management of interest income and costs.
Confirms:Net interest margin increases more than 17 basis points compared to Q1 2026.
Disproves:Net interest margin declines or grows less than 17 basis points compared to Q1 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SBCF yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 27, 2026, H. Gilbert Culbreth, Jr. formally notified the Company of his decision to resign from the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida (“Seacoast” or the “Company”), effective June 15, 2026. Mr. Culbreth will remain on the Board of the Company’s principal operating subsidiary, Seacoast National Bank (…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SBCF Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | full | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 3 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on enhancing shareholder returns through strategic initiatives and financial performance.
Continue efforts to improve net interest margin through strategic financial management.
Achieve organic deposit growth through strategic initiatives and customer engagement.
Focus on strategies to drive revenue growth across the business.
Continue to provide consistent dividend payments to shareholders.
Why it matters: A drop below 10% would signal a slowdown in revenue growth. This could impact investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in net interest margin can hurt profits. It may also affect how investors feel.
Confirms:Net interest margin is below 3.83%.
Disproves:Net interest margin remains at or above 3.83%.
Why it matters: Strong growth in deposits shows customer trust and good banking strategies.
Confirms:Organic deposit growth is over 7% in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Organic deposit growth is below 7% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income means the company is working more efficiently. This is important for making money in the long run.
Confirms:Operating income has gone up each year, now over $40.924M.
Disproves:Operating income does not increase or declines year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in adjusted net income may show problems with revenue and costs.
Confirms:Adjusted net income is below $67.8 million.
Disproves:Adjusted net income remains at or above $67.8 million.
Why it matters: If deposit growth drops, it may show less customer trust. This can hurt future earnings.
Confirms:Q2 deposit growth is below 7% per year.
Disproves:Q2 deposit growth is at or above 7% per year.
Why it matters: The dividend payment shows the company cares about its shareholders. It also shows it is stable.
Confirms:Announcement of a dividend payment equal to or greater than $0.19 per share.
Disproves:No dividend payment or a decrease in the dividend amount.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 28, 2026, Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida ("Seacoast or the "Company") announced its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release announcing Seacoast’s results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 26, 2026, Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida (the "Company") increased the size of its board of directors from eleven to fourteen by appointing Michael E. Griffin, Kathleen B. Kay and Randolph A. Moore, III, to the Company board, effective immediately. The three appointed directors will stand for election as Class III directors at the…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On January 29, 2026, Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida ("Seacoast or the "Company") announced its financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release announcing Seacoast’s results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025, is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference.
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. Effective October 1, 2025, Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida (“Seacoast” or the “Company”), and Seacoast's wholly-owned subsidiary Seacoast National Bank, completed the previously announced merger (the "Merger") with Villages Bancorporation, Inc. (“VBI”), parent company of Citizens First Bank. At the effective time of the Merger, (the "Effective Time"), VBI merged with and into Seacoast, and Citizens First Bank merged with and into Sea…