Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida (SBCF)

NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$33.56-0.27%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	218.86M
EPS	—	0.666
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	850.23M
EPS	—	2.55
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	899.22M
EPS	—	2.763

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Sustain net interest margin near 3.8%	Net interest margin rose to 3.83%.	Intact	net interest margin falls below 3.6%	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve organic deposit growth of 7% annualized	A primary condition in Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% annualized deposit growth.	Intact	organic deposit growth falls below 5%	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Organic loan growth was 15% annualized in 2025-Q4 and increased slightly to 16% annualized in 2026-Q2. Deposits grew 7% annualized in 2026-Q1 and 4% annualized in 2026-Q2. Loan pipeline expanded from $1.2 billion to $1.5 billion over the same period. Management is delivering consistent strong organic growth in loans and deposits aligned with stated priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain positive revenue growth	A primary condition in Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida's published investment case. The stated target is >0% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 0% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Organic loan growth was 15% annualized in 2025-Q4 and increased slightly to 16% annualized in 2026-Q2. Deposits grew 7% annualized in 2026-Q1 and 4% annualized in 2026-Q2. Loan pipeline expanded from $1.2 billion to $1.5 billion over the same period. Management is delivering consistent strong organic growth in loans and deposits aligned with stated priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Improve shareholder returns via net income growth	The bank aims to improve shareholder returns.	Intact	net income falls below $30M in 2026-Q1	Net income: $59.535M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net income >= $31.9M in 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 4, 202659,535,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9f8d82ac-12d0-4af4-a150-ffb8ccfad0ac. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$2.71 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.71	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-25	$2.71	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-26	$2.71	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-27	$2.71	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-28	$2.71	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-29	$2.71	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-30	$2.71	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-02	$2.75	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-03	$2.75	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-05	$2.76	$900,985,400	6 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-08	$2.76	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-09	$2.76	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-10	$2.76	$900,985,400	6 / 5
2026-08-12	$2.76	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-13	$2.76	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-14	$2.76	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-15	$2.76	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	2	4
2026-06-01	2	4
2026-07-01	2	4
2026-08-01	2	4
2026-09-01	2	4
2026-10-01	2	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Raymond JamesOct 13

$36.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$19.80$39.60

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Sustain net interest margin near 3.8%Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve organic deposit growth of 7% annualizedDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain positive revenue growthDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Improve shareholder returns via net income growthNet income: $59.535M

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-16.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

SBCF is a regional banking growth story, with recent strength in organic loans and deposits and a steady net interest margin. Its multi-year view is intact, though earnings quality and recent performance are rated neutral, risk is moderate, and confidence has eased to medium.

What's priced into Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida

The evidence labels valuation as expensive and pricing as stretched, despite describing SBCF as cheap versus peers. The expectations gap is modest, and low fragility suggests the setup is not marked as unusually vulnerable to a shift in market conditions.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, loan growth and margins have held up: annualized loan growth rose to 16% in 2026-Q2, while net interest margin stayed at 3.83%. Deposits grew more slowly in 2026-Q2, and the sector backdrop is a headwind; a guidance cut or recent peer misses are risks, even with two recent earnings beats.

What Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on management sustaining organic loan and deposit growth, maintaining margins, and capturing benefits from the completed Villages Bancorporation system conversion. Near term, a guidance cut or falling rates would weigh on the setup, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support it.