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Sanmina Corporation (SANM)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyElectronic ComponentsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$249.05-4.15%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is elevated in a sector backdrop that is a tailwind. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, quality intact. This assessment hinges on guidance changes, as a cut could negatively impact estimates, while a raise could provide a momentum boost. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Electronic Components
- Market cap
- $13.68B
- Employees
- 39,000
- IPO date
- 1996-05-09
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $249.05. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$252.30consensus
Range $247.24 – $422.91
vs price: -1% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$1323.63consensus
Range $620.35 – $1809.42
vs price: -81% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peersmedium confidence
At $260 SANM trades at 30× p/e, in line with its 29× p/e peer median. Our $256 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
29.7x
peer 28.5x · own history 13.2x
Premium
1.0x peer
2.3x its own history
Growth the price needs
1%
our forecast 31%
Our fair value
$256.44
range $246.19 – $433.78
WhyExtended vs its own history
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — quality intact12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 1% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 31%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
89th pctl · Information Technology
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 3.76x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated robust grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
83rd pctl · Information Technology
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullish4 analysts, 25% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $2.79 → $2.79 (+0.0% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 25% of analysts rate Buy.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: information technology is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): tailwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutralProvisional
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-16
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$215.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$579.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,269.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · signal_labelsmall change
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'mild_favorable'.
As of June 16, 2026, the signal label changed, indicating a shift from a mixed outlook to a mild favorable one. Risk elevated, suggesting an increase in uncertainty or volatility surrounding the stock. The sector backdrop remains a tailwind, which may support performance. Overall, the changes reflect a more favorable sentiment despite the elevated risk.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 11d
Watch for Q3 revenue falling below $3.2 billion
Why it matters: If revenue drops below this level, it may signal weaker demand trends.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q3 revenue reported below $3.2 billion.
Disproves:Q3 revenue exceeds $3.5 billion.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SANM yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in IT sector dropping below median
- Watch for FOMC decisions impacting tech investment
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for SANM and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like APH, GLW, and TEL keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting SANM and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If SANM raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-27), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If SANM cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-27), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like APH, GLW, and TEL start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping SANM and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-271mo agoItem 2.02
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On April 27, 2026, Sanmina Corporation (the “Company”) issued the press release attached as Exhibit 99.1 announcing unaudited financial results for its fiscal quarter ended March 28, 2026. The information set forth in this Item 2.02, including the exhibit hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. In…
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+0.9 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.