Reading IPGP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track IPGP free→
IPG Photonics (IPGP)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductor Equipment & MaterialsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Watch· this month
$120.01+4.68%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is mixed. Management's recent track record has been steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly, indicating less favorable shareholder actions. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a tailwind, although IPGP trades below typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 182% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
- Market cap
- $4.87B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2000-12-08
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $120.01. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$42.53consensus
Range $41.53 – $92.21
vs price: +182% above
Method agreement — · 5 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfull
$114.83consensus
Range $108.88 – $150.83
vs price: +5% above
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiummedium confidence
At $120 the market pays 5× p/s — above the 4× p/s peer median but in line with its own 4× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $43 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
5.1x
peer 3.7x · own history 4.3x
Premium
1.4x peer
1.2x its own history
Growth the price needs
182%
our forecast 5%
Our fair value
$42.53
range $41.53 – $85.57
WhyEarnings too small for P/E
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 182% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
45th pctl · Information Technology
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.95x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2831).
62nd pctl · Information Technology
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
stableEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BearishEPS revised -9.3% / 30d, n=7for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.43 → $0.39 (-9.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 4 cut, 7 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 42.0% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: information technology is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): tailwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weakProvisional
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- strong
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 3 guided quarters · 73.7% avg surprise
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$256.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$473.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,098.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for Q2 revenue guidance between $260 million and $290 million
Why it matters: This guidance will show if IPG can keep growing despite challenges.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 revenue reported at or above $290 million, showing strong demand.
Disproves:Q2 revenue was below $260 million. This shows weaker demand.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for IPGP yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in IT sector dropping below median
- Watch for FOMC decisions impacting tech investment
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for IPGP and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like ASML, LRCX, and AMAT keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting IPGP and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If IPGP raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If IPGP cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like ASML, LRCX, and AMAT start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping IPGP and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-051mo agoItem 2.02
shall be deemed to be furnished, and not filed: Exhibit Number Exhibit Description Exhibit 99.1 Press Release issued by IPG Photonics Corporation on May 5 , 2026. Exhibit 99.2 Press Release issued by IPG Photonics Corporation on May 5, 2026. Exhibit 104 Inline XBRL for the cover page of this Current Report on Form 8-K. SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, the registrant has duly caused this Current Report on Form 8-K to be signed on its b…
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
About the same as last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.