Reading JBL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NYSEInformation TechnologyElectronic ComponentsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Compared with sector peers, JBL is typical. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. This outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $375.76. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $386 JBL trades at 34× p/e, in line with its 30× p/e peer median. Our $367 fair value reflects that, low confidence. Analysts: $254–$430. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 1% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 14%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.14x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2831).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $3.71 → $3.72 (+0.4% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 80% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 11.2% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$203.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$467.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,786.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
As of June 16, 2026, the valuation changed, moving from full to fair. This indicates a shift in how the stock is priced relative to its peers. The macro backdrop is now neutral, reflecting a change in the overall economic conditions affecting the stock. Additionally, the sector backdrop remains a tailwind, suggesting ongoing support from the industry environment.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: An increase in EPS guidance indicates better earnings potential. This can attract more investors.
Confirms:Management says EPS will be higher for fiscal 2026.
Disproves:Management maintains or lowers EPS guidance for fiscal 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Partnership could enhance revenue growth and market position.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be "filed" for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. The information in this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, whether made before or after the date of this Current Report, regardless of any general incor…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$254.00 – $430.00 (median $384.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-06-15
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Electronic Manufacturing Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
JBL Jabil | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | full | moderate |
TEL TE Connectivity | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
FLEX Flex Ltd. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | elevated |
FN Fabrinet | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
TTMI TTM Technologies | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 49 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
13 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Met or beat guidance 88% of the last 8 guided quarters · 41.8% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to increase revenue guidance for fiscal year 2026.
Management targets achieving $1.3 billion in free cash flow for fiscal year 2026.
Management aims to increase EPS guidance for fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: This guidance will show how well Jabil is managing revenue after recent challenges. It is a key indicator of future performance.
Confirms one read:Q1 FY2025 revenue guidance is confirmed within the range of $6.3 billion to $6.9 billion.
Confirms the other:Q1 FY2025 revenue guidance falls below $6.3 billion.
Why it matters: Higher revenue guidance would show growth and confidence in the market.
Confirms:Revenue guidance for FY2026 raised above $27 billion.
Disproves:Revenue guidance for FY2026 remains below $27 billion.
Why it matters: This EPS number shows how much money Jabil makes. It also shows how well they control costs after recent changes.
Confirms:Core diluted EPS for FY2025 meets or exceeds $8.65.
Disproves:Core diluted EPS for FY2025 falls below $8.65.
Why it matters: Achieving this cash flow target will show Jabil's financial health and ability to invest in growth.
Confirms:Free cash flow for FY2026 reaches or exceeds $1.3 billion.
Disproves:Free cash flow for FY2026 falls below $1.3 billion.
Why it matters: This margin figure will show how well Jabil is managing costs amid revenue challenges.
Confirms:Core operating margin for Q3 FY2024 meets or exceeds 5.6%.
Disproves:Core operating margin for Q3 FY2024 falls below 5.6%.
Why it matters: The results will confirm if Jabil can maintain revenue growth amid market challenges.
Confirms one read:Q4 FY2024 revenue exceeds $6.9 billion.
Confirms the other:Q4 FY2024 revenue falls below $6.3 billion.
Why it matters: Earnings reports provide key insights into performance. They can impact stock price significantly.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue and EPS growth compared to last year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue and EPS decline compared to last year.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Thomas T. Edman and Raejeanne Skillern Appointment On January 22, 2026, following the 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders of Jabil Inc. (the “Company” or “Jabil”), the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Jabil increased the size of the Board from seven to nine directors and appointed Mr. Thomas T. Edman and Ms. Raejeanne Skillern to the Board, effe…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On January 23, 2026, Jabil Inc. (the “Company”) issued $500 million aggregate principal amount of its 4.200% Senior Notes due 2029 (the “2029 Notes”) and $500 million aggregate principal amount of its 4.750% Senior Notes due 2033 (the “2033 Notes” and together with the 2029 Notes, the “Notes”) in an underwritten public offering (the “Offering”). The forms and terms of the Notes were established pursuant to an Officers’ Certificate, dated as of Janua…
Other Events. In connection with the Offering, the Company entered into an Underwriting Agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) among the Company, BNP Paribas Securities Corp., Citigroup Global Markets Inc., Credit Agricole Securities (USA) Inc. and SMBC Nikko Securities America, Inc., as representatives of the several underwriters listed in Schedule I to the Underwriting Agreement, with respect to the offer and sale of the Notes. The Underwriting Agreement contains customary representations…
of this Current Report, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be "filed" for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. The information in this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, whether made before or after the date of this Current Report, regardless of any general incor…