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Jabil (JBL)
NYSEInformation TechnologyElectronic ComponentsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$375.76-2.56%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Compared with sector peers, JBL is typical. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. This outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Electronic Components
- Market cap
- $40.60B
- Employees
- 135,000
- IPO date
- 1996-07-15
- Next earnings
- 2026-06-17
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $375.76. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$366.86consensus
Range $307.84 – $428.97
vs price: +2% above
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$663.07consensus
Range $443.07 – $876.45
vs price: -43% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peerslow confidence
At $386 JBL trades at 34× p/e, in line with its 30× p/e peer median. Our $367 fair value reflects that, low confidence. Analysts: $254–$430. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
33.9x
peer 30.2x · own history 15.0x
Premium
1.1x peer
2.3x its own history
Growth the price needs
5%
our forecast 14%
Our fair value
$367.14
range $306.82 – $439.69
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 1% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 14%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
67th pctl · Information Technology
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 2.14x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2831).
66th pctl · Information Technology
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullish8 analysts, 80% Buyfor period ending 2026-08-31
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $3.71 → $3.72 (+0.4% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 8 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 80% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 11.2% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: information technology is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): tailwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Guidance credibility
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- strong
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$203.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$467.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,786.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
As of June 16, 2026, the valuation changed, moving from full to fair. This indicates a shift in how the stock is priced relative to its peers. The macro backdrop is now neutral, reflecting a change in the overall economic conditions affecting the stock. Additionally, the sector backdrop remains a tailwind, suggesting ongoing support from the industry environment.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 18d
Watch for EPS guidance increase for fiscal 2026
Why it matters: An increase in EPS guidance indicates better earnings potential. This can attract more investors.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Management says EPS will be higher for fiscal 2026.
Disproves:Management maintains or lowers EPS guidance for fiscal 2026.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-152d agoETCIO.com
Partnership could enhance revenue growth and market position.
Strongly reinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in IT sector dropping below median
- Watch for FOMC decisions impacting tech investment
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for JBL and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like APH, GLW, and TEL keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting JBL and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
Downside triggers
- If JBL reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-03-18), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like APH, GLW, and TEL start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping JBL and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits JBL and other Tech names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-03-183mo agoItem 2.02
of this Current Report, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be "filed" for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. The information in this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, whether made before or after the date of this Current Report, regardless of any general incor…
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
About the same as last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.