Jabil (JBL)

NYSEInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$278.25-3.10%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Jabil’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Core diluted EPS reaches $12.70 in fiscal 2026	A primary condition in Jabil's published investment case. The stated target is >= $12.70.	Under Pressure	Core diluted EPS falls below $11.00 in fiscal 2026	Diluted EPS: $3.76 per share FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $12.70. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 30, 20263.76 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Aug 31, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Core diluted EPS increased from $9.75 in fiscal 2025 to $13.09 in fiscal 2026, with guidance raised to $17.55 for fiscal 2027 (+34%). Management has consistently raised EPS guidance and is delivering profitable growth. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Operating income rises to $445 million in Q3 2026	Cost control improves profit and efficiency.	Intact	Operating income falls below $400 million in Q3 FY26	Operating income: $602M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $445 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 30, 2026602,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Aug 31, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Core operating margin improved from 5.4% in fiscal 2025 to 5.8% in fiscal 2026, supported by targeted restructuring charges each quarter to optimize cost structure. Management is delivering operational efficiencies with margin expansion. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Adjusted free cash flow exceeds $1.4 billion in fiscal 2026	Free cash flow exceeds $1.4 billion, showing strong cash generation.	Under Pressure	Adjusted free cash flow falls below $1 billion in fiscal 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Adjusted free cash flow grew from $1.3+ billion guidance in early 2025 to actual $1.5+ billion in fiscal 2026, with guidance for $1.6 billion in fiscal 2027. Management has consistently emphasized this target and is delivering on it. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Fiscal 2026 revenue reaches $35 billion	A primary condition in Jabil's published investment case. The stated target is >= $35 billion.	Under Pressure	Fiscal 2026 revenue falls below $30 billion	Revenue: $10.616B FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $35 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 30, 202610,616,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Aug 31, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Revenue grew from $29.8 billion in fiscal 2025 to $36.0 billion in fiscal 2026 (+21%), with guidance raised to $44.5 billion for fiscal 2027 (+24%). Management consistently raised revenue outlooks and the trajectory is delivering strong growth. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-08-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$22.05

Unavailable → $22.05 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$51.69B

$48.39B → $51.69B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$48,388,297,537	2 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$48,388,297,537	2 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$48,388,297,537	2 / 5
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$48,388,297,537	2 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$48,388,297,537	2 / 5
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$48,388,297,537	2 / 5
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$48,388,297,537	2 / 5
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$48,388,297,537	2 / 5
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$48,388,297,537	2 / 5
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$48,388,297,537	2 / 5
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$48,388,297,537	2 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$48,388,297,537	2 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$48,388,297,537	2 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$48,388,297,537	2 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$48,388,297,537	2 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$48,388,297,537	2 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$48,388,297,537	2 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$48,388,297,537	2 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$48,388,297,537	2 / 5
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$48,388,297,537	2 / 5
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$48,388,297,537	2 / 5
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$48,388,297,537	2 / 5
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$48,388,297,537	2 / 5
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$48,388,297,537	2 / 5
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$48,388,297,537	2 / 5
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$49,052,528,377	2 / 5
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$49,052,528,377	2 / 5
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$49,052,528,377	2 / 5
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$49,164,741,467	2 / 5
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$49,164,741,467	2 / 5
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$51,783,749,238	4 / 5
2026-10-02	$22.05	$51,688,949,944	5 / 5
2026-10-03	$22.05	$51,688,949,944	5 / 5
2026-10-04	$22.05	$51,688,949,944	5 / 6
2026-10-05	$22.05	$51,688,949,944	5 / 6
2026-10-06	$22.05	$51,688,949,944	5 / 6
2026-10-07	$22.05	$51,688,949,944	5 / 6
2026-10-08	$22.05	$51,688,949,944	5 / 6
2026-10-09	$22.05	$51,688,949,944	5 / 6
2026-10-10	$22.05	$51,688,949,944	5 / 6
2026-10-11	$22.05	$51,688,949,944	5 / 6
2026-10-12	$22.05	$51,688,949,944	5 / 6
2026-10-13	$22.05	$51,688,949,944	5 / 6
2026-10-14	$22.05	$51,688,949,944	5 / 6
2026-10-15	$22.05	$51,688,949,944	5 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	8	2
2026-06-01	8	2
2026-07-01	8	2
2026-08-01	9	2
2026-09-01	9	1
2026-10-01	9	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysOct 1 · prior Jun 18

$426.00 → $378.00-11.3%

$0$234.30$468.60

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Core diluted EPS reaches $12.70 in fiscal 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Operating income rises to $445 million in Q3 2026Operating income: $602M
Adjusted free cash flow exceeds $1.4 billion in fiscal 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Fiscal 2026 revenue reaches $35 billionPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-25.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Jabil outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder focused on steady revenue and earnings growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent strong financial performance and management's commitment to increasing guidance.

What's priced into Jabil

The market seems to have priced in a neutral valuation, with JBL appearing cheap compared to its peers. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that the market may not fully reflect the company's potential for continued growth.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain strong, as management has consistently met or exceeded their growth targets. However, there is a low probability of missing future earnings expectations, which is something to monitor given JBL's recent history of earnings surprises trending down.

What Jabil hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on JBL's ability to maintain its growth trajectory and avoid any negative guidance revisions. Additionally, external factors like Federal Reserve rate cuts and performance from sector leaders could significantly impact JBL's momentum.