Reading FN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NYSEInformation TechnologyElectronic ComponentsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is fragile, meaning profits lack cash support. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 50% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $588.29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $588 FN trades at 47× p/e — 1.7× the 28× p/e peer median, and above its own 35× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $387 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 50% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 24%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality. Capped at elevated by the Mania regime.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.61x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 65% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $3.76 → $3.81 (+1.3% / 30d). 6 raised, 1 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 78% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$327.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$735.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,227.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'mild_favorable'.
The signal changed, indicating a shift in sentiment from mixed to mild favorable. Risk fell, moving from an elevated level. The sector backdrop remains a tailwind, suggesting supportive conditions for the company. The earnings quality is currently fragile, indicating potential concerns in that area.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Staying above this level shows strong profits and good cost control.
Confirms:Q4 GAAP net income per diluted share reported at or above $3.48.
Disproves:Q4 GAAP net income per diluted share reported below $3.48.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Expand revenue growth
Strategic investment aligns with revenue growth objectives.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
and the press release attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”), nor shall they be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Electronic Manufacturing Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FN Fabrinet | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
TEL TE Connectivity | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
FLEX Flex Ltd. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | full | elevated |
JBL Jabil | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | full | moderate |
TTMI TTM Technologies | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 49 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=797).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Aim to enhance operating income through efficiency improvements and cost management.
Focus on improving gross profit margins through operational efficiencies.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this guidance shows strong demand and growth momentum in the datacom market.
Confirms:Q4 revenue reported at or above $1.25 billion.
Disproves:Q4 revenue reported below $1.25 billion.
Why it matters: Higher margins help make more money.
Confirms:Gross profit margins improve by more than 2% quarter over quarter.
Disproves:Gross profit margins decline or stay flat quarter over quarter.
Why it matters: New agreements can help growth. They support management's positive view.
Confirms:At least two new customer agreements were announced in the datacom market.
Disproves:No new customer deals are expected in the datacom market before the next earnings call.
Why it matters: A drop in margins may mean rising costs. It could also mean pricing pressure.
Confirms:Gross profit margins reported below 12%.
Disproves:Gross profit margins reported above 15%.
Why it matters: Sector growth trends can impact Fabrinet's performance and outlook.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth drops below its median of 5%.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median of 10%.
Why it matters: Stalling margins can show problems in operations. This raises worries about Fabrinet's cost control.
Confirms:Gross profit margin shows no improvement or is declining.
Disproves:Gross profit margins continue to improve quarter over quarter.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth would signal a potential slowdown in Fabrinet's expansion. This could raise concerns about future performance.
Confirms:Q3 revenue growth reported below 20% year over year.
Disproves:Q3 revenue growth remains above 20% year over year.
Why it matters: The earnings release will provide insights on revenue growth and profit margins.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth above 10% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue growth below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Strong growth in operating income shows good cost management. It also shows efficiency.
Confirms:Operating income grew more than 10% compared to last year.
Disproves:Operating income grew less than 5% compared to last year.
and the press release attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”), nor shall they be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Director Retirement On October 13, 2025, David T. Mitchell notified the board of directors (the “ Board ”) of Fabrinet (the “ Company ”) of his decision to retire from the Board, effective immediately. Mr. Mitchell’s decision was not due to any disagreement with the Company on any matter relating to the Company’s operations, policies or practices.…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Director Appointment On October 13, 2025, the board of directors (the “ Board ”) of Fabrinet (the “ Company ”) appointed Caroline Dowling to serve on the Board as a Class I director (with a term expiring at the Company’s next annual meeting of shareholders) until her successor is duly elected and qualified or her earlier death, resignation or remov…