Fabrinet (FN)

NYSEInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$314.94-0.86%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Fabrinet’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-26
Revenue	—	1.48B
EPS	—	4.426
Annual ending 2027-06-26
Revenue	—	6.1B
EPS	—	18.234
Annual ending 2028-06-26
Revenue	—	7.29B
EPS	—	21.863

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Gross profit at least $144M in Q3 2026	A supporting condition in Fabrinet's published investment case. The stated target is >= $144M.	Intact	Gross profit falls below $144M in 2026-Q3	Gross profit: $161.45M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $144M. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 18, 2026161,450,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 26, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income at least $120M in Q3 2026	Profit margins improve with operating income rising from $79.6M to $120M.	Intact	Operating income falls below $120M in 2026-Q3	Operating income: $137.905M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $120M. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 18, 2026137,905,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 26, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of 3 supplied transcript quarters. Operating income increased from $89.1 million in 2025-Q4 to $134.2 million in 2026-Q2. The increase is substantive progress consistent with management's emphasis on execution and operating leverage. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue growth to at least $1.27B in Q4 2026	A primary condition in Fabrinet's published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.27B.	Intact	Revenue falls below $1.27B in 2026-Q4	Revenue: $1.316B FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.27B. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 18, 20261,315,788,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 26, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of 3 supplied transcript quarters. Revenue increased from $909.7 million in 2025-Q4 to $1,315.8 million in 2026-Q2, with 2026-Q2 revenue exceeding guidance. The reported revenue trajectory is delivering against management's stated growth focus. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-26 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue$7.29B

Unavailable → $7.29B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$7,269,159,250	3 / 5
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$7,269,159,250	3 / 5
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$7,269,159,250	3 / 5
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$7,269,159,250	3 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$7,269,159,250	3 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$7,269,159,250	3 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$7,269,159,250	3 / 5
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$7,269,159,250	3 / 5
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$7,269,159,250	3 / 5
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$7,269,159,250	4 / 5
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$7,269,159,250	4 / 5
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$7,269,159,250	4 / 5
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$7,269,159,250	4 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$7,269,159,250	4 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$7,269,159,250	4 / 5
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$7,269,159,250	4 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$7,269,159,250	4 / 5
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$7,269,159,250	4 / 5
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$7,269,159,250	4 / 5
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$7,269,159,250	4 / 5
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$7,269,159,250	4 / 5
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$7,269,159,250	4 / 5
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$7,269,159,250	4 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$7,269,159,250	4 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$7,269,159,250	4 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$7,269,159,250	4 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$7,269,159,250	4 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$7,269,159,250	4 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$7,269,159,250	4 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$7,269,159,250	4 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$7,269,159,250	4 / 5
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$7,269,159,250	4 / 5
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$7,269,159,250	4 / 5
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$7,269,159,250	4 / 5
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$7,269,159,250	4 / 5
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$7,269,159,250	4 / 5
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$7,269,159,250	4 / 5
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$7,269,159,250	4 / 5
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$7,269,159,250	4 / 5
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$7,269,159,250	4 / 5
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$7,269,159,188	4 / 5
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$7,269,159,188	4 / 5
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$7,269,159,188	4 / 5
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$7,269,159,188	4 / 5
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$7,269,159,188	4 / 5
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$7,269,159,188	4 / 5
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$7,269,159,188	4 / 5
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$7,269,159,188	4 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$7,269,159,188	4 / 5
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$7,269,159,188	4 / 5
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$7,269,159,188	4 / 5
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$7,269,159,188	4 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$7,269,159,188	4 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$7,269,159,188	4 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$7,269,159,188	4 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$7,269,159,188	4 / 5
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$7,270,909,188	4 / 5
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$7,270,906,138	4 / 5
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$7,270,906,138	4 / 5
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$7,270,906,138	4 / 5
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$7,270,906,138	4 / 5
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$7,270,906,138	4 / 5
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$7,270,906,138	4 / 5
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$7,270,906,138	4 / 5
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$7,294,368,637	4 / 5
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$7,294,368,637	4 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	7	2
2026-06-01	7	2
2026-07-01	7	2
2026-08-01	7	2
2026-09-01	7	2
2026-10-01	7	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Gross profit at least $144M in Q3 2026Gross profit: $161.45M
Operating income at least $120M in Q3 2026Operating income: $137.905M
Revenue growth to at least $1.27B in Q4 2026Revenue: $1.316B

Next proof point

Nov 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-57.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Fabrinet outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

FN is a growth-oriented technology business with recent strong financial performance, rather than a turnaround. Its long-term thesis is intact, but the high risk rating and recent drop in company momentum temper the otherwise positive operating picture.

What's priced into Fabrinet

The valuation evidence points to FN being cheap versus peers, with a negative expectations gap and a justified priced-in assessment. That suggests limited signs of excessive optimism in the evidence, though the valuation model has high confidence and the overall value factor is neutral.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue and operating income have risen, and second-quarter revenue exceeded guidance; management’s growth and operating-income priorities are on track. Strategic customer expansion is less clear because the latest disclosures show no specific new agreement, while the risk backdrop includes a 27% miss probability and a history of a deep miss despite the quiet watch tier.

What Fabrinet hinges on

A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, especially given recent peer misses and the company’s past deep miss. The favorable case depends partly on rate cuts and continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers, while the 17.3-point drop in company momentum is a caution to monitor.