Sanmina Corporation (SANM)

NASDAQInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$155.71+0.80%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Sanmina Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	$3.3B–$3.6B	—
EPS	$3.05–$3.35non-GAAP	—
Operating margin	7.5%–8%non-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Q1
Revenue	—	3.42B
EPS	—	2.824
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$14B–$14.3B	—
EPS	$11.9–$12.2non-GAAP	—
Operating margin	6.85%–7.25%non-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	16.61B
EPS	—	14.065
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	19.41B
EPS	—	16.237

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash from operations stays above $398M in Q2 2026	Cash from operations also doubled to nearly $400M.	Broken	Cash from operations falls below $398M in Q2 2026	Cash from operations: $124.491M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $398M. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 27, 2026124,491,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q3. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Cash flow from operations was $179M in 2026-Q1, increased to $399M in 2026-Q2, then declined to $124M in 2026-Q3. Free cash flow was $342M in 2026-Q2 and $24M in 2026-Q3. Management emphasizes cash generation, but cash flow shows mixed trajectory with a recent decline. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating income sustains at least $157M in Q2 2026	A primary condition in Sanmina Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >= $157M.	Improving	Operating income falls below $157M in Q2 2026	Operating income: $221.225M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $157M. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 27, 2026221,225,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 36c2b700-52d1-4ac6-826b-b879f8006064. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows to at least $13.7B in fiscal Q3 2026	A primary condition in Sanmina Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >= $13.7B.	Intact	Revenue falls below $13.7B in fiscal Q3 2026	Revenue: $3.464B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $13.7B. Target period ends 2026-09-30; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Source published Jul 27, 20263,464,016,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 36c2b700-52d1-4ac6-826b-b879f8006064. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue increased from $3.19B in 2026-Q1 to $4.01B in 2026-Q2 and $3.46B in 2026-Q3. Core Sanmina grew 7.3% year-over-year in 2026-Q2. Management's statements and revenue trajectory show delivering growth with strong demand and expansion. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-27 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	1	3
2026-06-01	1	3
2026-07-01	1	3
2026-08-01	1	3
2026-09-01	1	3
2026-10-01	1	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash from operations stays above $398M in Q2 2026Published status: Broken
Operating income sustains at least $157M in Q2 2026Operating income: $221.225M
Revenue grows to at least $13.7B in fiscal Q3 2026Revenue: $3.464B

Next proof point

Nov 9, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-45.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Sanmina Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

SANM is an execution-led growth business with recent strong financial performance, rather than a turnaround story. Its long-term thesis is intact, but confidence is medium and risk is elevated.

What's priced into Sanmina Corporation

The valuation evidence is mixed: SANM is described as cheap versus peers, yet the model also shows a peer premium. The expectations gap is negative, which suggests expectations may be ahead of the evidence; the overall priced-in assessment is tagged as justified, with low fragility.

What the fundamentals likely do

In the near term, recent results show revenue growth and improving operating margins, and management is on track with those priorities. Cash generation is less consistent, with operating cash flow and free cash flow declining in the latest quarter; confidence has also moved from high to medium.

What Sanmina Corporation hinges on

Over the next several quarters, the thesis depends on SANM sustaining growth and margin progress without reversing its recently raised guidance, which could damage management credibility. Fed rate cuts and continued strong results from sector peers could support the backdrop, while mixed cash flow and recent peer misses remain risks.