Reading RLYB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RLYB free→Reading RLYB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RLYB free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Peer multiples imply a price about 72% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. If RLYB cuts guidance on the next call, that could lead to a meaningful negative impact. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $15.90. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $16, RLYB's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 96× p/s (10.1× the 9× p/s peer median). That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $9.39 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 69% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
Over the trailing year it converted 3.53x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
14 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-1.28 → $-1.28 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$167.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$668.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,105.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide updates on financial health and future plans. Investors will look for signs of improvement in revenue and loss-making status.
Confirms one read:Rallybio shares its next earnings date. It also gives positive revenue guidance.
Confirms the other:Earnings date is announced with continued loss-making status and no revenue growth.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for RLYB yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Changes in Control of Registrant. To the extent required by this Item, the information included in
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
RLYB Rallybio Corp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 20 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Rallybio aims to complete the acquisition of Avenzo Therapeutics to enhance its oncology portfolio.
Newly stated in 2026-Q2. The acquisition of Avenzo Therapeutics was completed as per the Merger Agreement on May 31, 2026. This strategic move is aimed at enhancing Rallybio's oncology portfolio. The completion of this acquisition marks a significant step in Rallybio's growth strategy.
“Rallybio entered into a Merger Agreement with Avenzo Therapeutics on May 31, 2026.”
Rallybio is focused on managing its operating losses as part of its financial strategy.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income was reported as -$8.73M for 2026-Q1, compared to -$6.41M in 2025-Q4 and -$6.93M in 2025-Q3. The trajectory shows increasing operating losses, indicating limited progress in managing costs effectively.
Rallybio is focused on advancing the RLYB116 confirmatory PK/PD study with data readouts expected.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Rallybio has been advancing the RLYB116 confirmatory PK/PD study, with data readouts from Cohort 1 and Cohort 2 expected in 3Q and 4Q 2025. The company remains on track with its timeline, indicating progress in its product development efforts.
“Data readouts from Cohort 1 and Cohort 2 of RLYB116 study on track for 3Q and 4Q 2025.”
Why it matters: If healthcare sector revenue growth speeds up, it could benefit Rallybio. A stronger sector can improve investor sentiment.
Confirms:Healthcare sector revenue growth speeds up toward 10% or more.
Disproves:Healthcare sector revenue growth keeps slowing down below current levels.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Merger Agreement On May 31, 2026, Rallybio Corporation, a Delaware corporation (“ Rallybio ”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger and Reorganization (the “ Merger Agreement ”) with Avenzo Therapeutics, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“ Avenzo ”), a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing next-generation oncology therapies, and Farmington Merger Sub, Inc., a Delaware corporation and wholly-owned subsidiary of Rallybio (“ Merger Sub ”)…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. To the extent required by this Item, the information included in
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. To the extent required by this Item, the information included in
of Rallybio’s Current Report on Form 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “ SEC ”) on March 2, 2026 (the “ March 2026 8-K ”), which description is incorporated herein by reference. Such description is qualified in its entirety by reference to the full text of the Merger Agreement, which is attached as Exhibit 2.1 to the March 2026 8-K, which is incorporated herein by reference. On May 3, 2026, Candid terminated the Merger Agreement concurrently with entering into a Permi…
“Operating income was reported as -$8.73M for 2026-Q1.”
“Operating income was reported as -$6.41M for 2025-Q4.”
“Operating income was reported as -$6.93M for 2025-Q3.”
“Rallybio is on track to report data from the study in the fourth quarter of 2025.”