Reading RIGL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 68% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. Key factors to watch include potential guidance cuts and the performance of sector bellwethers like VRTX, REGN, and ARGX. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $33.42. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $33 RIGL trades at 5× p/e, below its 17× p/e peer median. Our $106 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 68% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 22%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.22x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated fragile grew net income 40% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.06 → $0.06 (-93.9% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 60% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$169.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$567.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,008.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If healthcare sector revenue growth picks up, it could help Rigel's performance. This would show a stronger market.
Confirms:Healthcare sector revenue growth returns to above 10% year over year.
Disproves:Healthcare sector revenue growth stays below 10% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for RIGL yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Approval of Equity Compensation Plans Approval of 2018 Equity Incentive Plan, As Amended On May 14, 2026, at the 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders (the “Annual Meeting”) of Rigel Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (the “Company”), the Company’s stockholders approved an amendment to the Company’s 2018 Equity Incentive Plan, as amended (the “Amended 2018 Plan”)…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
RIGL Rigel Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Rigel aims to achieve its 2026 total revenue guidance of approximately $275 to $290 million.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue was $58.8M in 2026-Q1, down from $69.8M in 2025-Q4. Rigel has consistently reaffirmed its 2026 revenue guidance of $275-$290M, but the current trajectory shows limited progress toward this target.
“Rigel reaffirm its 2026 total revenues guidance of approximately $275 to $290 million.”
“Rigel anticipates full-year total revenues of approximately $275 to $290 million.”
“Rigel anticipates full-year total revenue of approximately $275 to $290 million.”
Rigel entered a license agreement to develop, manufacture, and commercialize VEPPANU TM.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Rigel entered a license agreement to develop VEPPANU TM, marking a strategic move into new product development. Financial impact is yet to be reflected in revenue or operating income.
“Rigel entered into a License Agreement to develop, manufacture and commercialize VEPPANU TM.”
Rigel aims to maintain net product sales within the range of $255 to $265 million for 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Rigel aims for net product sales of $255-$265M in 2026. Current revenue trends show a decline from $69.8M in 2025-Q4 to $58.8M in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress toward this target.
“Net product sales of approximately $255 to $265 million.”
as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. The information in this report, including the exhibit hereto, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. The information contained herein and in the accompanying exhibit shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ma…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 11, 2026, Rigel Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (“Rigel” or the “Company”) entered into a License Agreement (the “Agreement”) with Arvinas, Inc., Arvinas Operations, Inc., Arvinas Estrogen Receptor, Inc. and Pfizer Inc. (collectively, the “Licensors”). Pursuant to the Agreement, the Licensors granted Rigel an exclusive, royalty-bearing license to develop, manufacture and commercialize VEPPANU TM (vepdegestrant) and related products (the “Licensed Produ…
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. On April 16, 2026, Rigel Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (“Rigel”) received written notice from Eli Lilly and Company (“Lilly”) of Lilly’s election to terminate that certain License and Collaboration Agreement, dated February 18, 2021 (the “Agreement”), between Rigel and Lilly. Pursuant to the terms of the Agreement, Lilly has elected to terminate the Agreement in its entirety. The termination will become effective June 15, 2026. The Agreement granted Lil…
as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. The information in this report, including the exhibit hereto, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. The information contained herein and in the accompanying exhibit shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ma…
“Including net product sales of approximately $255 to $265 million.”
“Including net product sales of approximately $255 to $265 million.”