Reading PKOH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PKOH free→Reading PKOH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PKOH free→NASDAQIndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachinerySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 54% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The valuation is supported by the fact that it trades below peer multiples, and the recent financials and earnings quality are not flashing deterioration. If PKOH cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $34.30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $34 PKOH trades at 13× p/e, below its 24× p/e peer median. Our $73 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 53% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.89x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.81 → $0.81 (+0.2% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$165.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$372.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,839.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The FOMC's decision can impact interest rates. Changes can affect borrowing costs for Park-Ohio.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates by 25 basis points.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps interest rates unchanged or lowers them.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PKOH yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026 , Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. issued a press release announcing its quarter ended March 31, 2026 results. The press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained in this Current Report shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Excha…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PKOH Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 54 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
PH Parker Hannifin | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
ITW Illinois Tool Works | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GWW W. W. Grainger | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | full | moderate |
DOV Dover Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | fair | low |
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Park-Ohio aims to increase its net sales by 5% to 7% over 2025 levels in 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $395M in 2025-Q4 to $421M in 2026-Q1, indicating progress towards the 5% to 7% growth target for 2026. The trajectory is delivering on the stated priority.
“Net Sales: $1.675 billion to $1.710 billion, an increase of 5% to 7% over 2025.”
“Net Sales: $1.675 billion to $1.710 billion, an increase of 5% to 7% over 2025 sales.”
Park-Ohio targets an adjusted EPS range of $2.90 to $3.20 per diluted share for 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Diluted EPS was $0.57 in 2026-Q1, indicating progress towards the full-year adjusted EPS target of $2.90 to $3.20. The trajectory is on track with the guidance.
“Adjusted EPS: $2.90 to $3.20 per diluted share, an increase of 7% to 19% over 2025.”
Park-Ohio aims to generate between $20 million and $30 million in free cash flow for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operating activities was -$7.8M in 2026-Q1, indicating a need for improvement to meet the $20M to $30M free cash flow target for 2026. The trajectory shows limited progress so far.
Why it matters: GDP growth affects overall economic health. Strong GDP can lead to increased industrial demand.
Confirms:GDP growth exceeds 2% in the third estimate.
Disproves:GDP growth is below 1% in the third estimate.
Why it matters: This report gives insight into consumer spending. Strong retail sales can boost demand for Park-Ohio's products.
Confirms:Retail sales increase by more than 0.5% month over month.
Disproves:Retail sales decline by more than 0.5% month over month.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 4, 2026, Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. issued a press release announcing its year ended December 31, 2025 results. The press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained in this Current Report shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exch…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 5, 2025 , Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. issued a press release announcing its quarter ended September 30, 2025 results. The press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained in this Current Report shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On September 30, 2025, the board of directors of Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. (“Holdings”) elected Andrew C. Clarke as a member of the board in the class of directors that will stand for re-election at the Holdings' 2027 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, effective immediately. Mr. Clarke was also elected to the board of directors of Holdings' principal o…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2025 , Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. issued a press release announcing its quarter ended June 30, 2025 results. The press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained in this Current Report shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exc…
“Adjusted EPS: $2.90 to $3.20 per diluted share, an increase of 7% to 19% over 2025 Adjusted EPS.”
“Free Cash Flow: $20 million to $30 million.”
“Free Cash Flow: $20 million to $30 million.”