Reading PFS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PFS free→Reading PFS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PFS free→NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral, indicating some uncertainty in cash flow backing reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 10% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. Key factors to watch include potential guidance cuts and the performance of sector bellwethers, as these could significantly impact PFS. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $23.16. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $23 PFS trades at 10× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $25 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 9% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about -3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.43x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.56 → $0.56 (-0.1% / 30d). 1 raised, 4 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$95.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$190.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,450.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in net income would signal weakening financial performance after a strong Q1.
Confirms:Q2 net income reported below $79 million.
Disproves:Q2 net income remains above $79 million.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PFS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (e) Provident Financial Services, Inc. (“Provident Financial”) and Christopher Martin, Executive Chairman of the Board of Directors of Provident Financial and Provident Bank (together, the “Board”), have entered into an Amended and Restated Executive Chairman Agreement (the “Agreement”). The Agreement supersedes and replaces Mr. Martin’s prior Exec…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PFS Provident Financial Services, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on strategic growth of Provident Bank's wealth management business, including investment management and fiduciary services.
Continue the commitment to provide a quarterly cash dividend of $0.24 per share to shareholders.
Focus on increasing both net income and operating income as part of growth strategy.
Continue to grow the loan portfolio and sustain a robust loan pipeline.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a potential slowdown in the financial sector. This could impact the stock's performance.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth falls below the median growth rate of 12% for the sector.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth stays above the median growth rate of 12% for the sector.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows a promise to give money back to shareholders. It shows good financial health.
Confirms:The Board declares the quarterly cash dividend of $0.24 per share for the next quarter.
Disproves:The Board cuts or stops the quarterly cash dividend of $0.24 per share.
Why it matters: Continued growth in net income shows the company is improving its financial performance. It may boost investor confidence.
Confirms:Net income for Q2 2026 increases year over year from $79.4 million in Q1 2026.
Disproves:Net income for Q2 2026 declines or stays flat compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: A growing loan portfolio is crucial for net income. It reflects demand and operational health.
Confirms:Loan portfolio growth exceeds 5% in the next quarter.
Disproves:Loan portfolio growth falls below 2% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Growth in the loan pipeline shows strong demand. This means more money in the future.
Confirms:Loan pipeline is above $3.1 billion.
Disproves:Loan pipeline is below $3.1 billion.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows good capital management. It also shows confidence in earnings.
Confirms:Dividend announced at $0.24 per share.
Disproves:Dividend cut below $0.24 per share.
Why it matters: An increase in non-performing loans may show credit quality problems. This can affect future earnings.
Confirms:Non-performing loans to total loans are above 0.73%.
Disproves:Non-performing loans to total loans are below 0.73%.
Why it matters: Net interest margin changes impact profits. It shows how well the bank earns interest.
Confirms one read:Net interest margin increases above 3.44% in Q2.
Confirms the other:Net interest margin decreases below 3.40% in Q2.
Results of Operation and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, Provident Financial Services, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release reporting its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and is being furnished to the SEC and shall not be deemed “filed” for any purpose.
Regulation FD Disclosure On April 30, 2026, Provident Financial Services, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing that its Board of Directors has declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.24 per common share payable on May 29, 2026 to stockholders of record as of the close of business on May 15, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and is being furnished to the SEC and shall not be deemed “filed” for any purpose.
Departure of Directors or Principal Officers On February 27, 2026, Valerie O. Murray, President of Beacon Trust Company and Executive Vice President and Chief Wealth Management Officer of Provident Bank, announced her decision to depart from her positions to pursue other opportunities, which resignation will be effective as of May 22, 2026. The executive’s resignation is not related to a disagreement with Provident Financial Services, Inc., Provident Bank (together, the “Company”) or Beacon T…