Provident Financial Services, Inc. (PFS)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-09
$23.11-1.37%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Provident Financial grew net income from $64M to $79M in one year. It beat earnings estimates by 11% in Q1 2026. The merger with Lakeland Bancorp boosts its wealth management business. The stock trades cheap with a PE of 10 versus peers at 12.
Revenue could fall as analysts expect a 16% drop next year. Leadership changes may slow growth. Profit growth might stall if costs rise or loans weaken.
The price is about 46% below our fair value near $44. Analysts expect revenue to shrink 16% next year, which we think is too pessimistic.
Breaks if: EPS guidance falls below $0.61 for FY 2026
Breaks if: net income falls below $79M in 2026-Q1
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on expanding its wealth management business. The current thesis is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and a commitment to maintaining dividends.
The market currently prices PFS as cheap compared to its peers, with a low expectations gap. There is a justified valuation, indicating that the stock is not overly speculative at this time.
Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, as management is on track with priorities like increasing net income and maintaining dividends. Recent financial performance has been strong, with net income and operating income showing growth.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC. If these companies continue to exceed earnings expectations, it could positively influence PFS. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could impact PFS's momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no new threats identified that could weaken the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Drive growth in net income and operating income through expanding net interest income, non-interest income, and strong loan production.
Stated in 4 consecutive quarters from 2025-Q3 to 2026-Q2. Net income increased from $71.7 million in 2025-Q3 to $78.1 million in 2026-Q2, while operating income rose from $101.6 million to $106.1 million. Management is delivering on income growth through expanding net interest and non-interest income.
“Net income of $78.1 million, or $0.60 per share, compared to $79.4 million in prior quarter and $72.0 million year ago.”
“Net income of $79.4 million, or $0.61 per share, compared to $71.7 million in 2025-Q1.”
“Net income of $83.3 million, or $0.55 per share.”
“Net income of $71.7 million, or $0.55 per share.”
Breaks if: PE rises above 12 without profit growth
Breaks if: No growth or decline in wealth management revenue post-merger
Overall, PFS appears to have a solid foundation for growth over the next few years, with management focused on key priorities. Not investment advice.