Provident Financial Services, Inc. (PFS)

Q: What's priced into Provident Financial Services, Inc. (PFS) stock?

PFS is described as cheap versus peers, with a modest expectations gap and low signs of fragile pricing. The evidence labels current pricing as justified, but does not provide enough detail to say exactly what earnings assumptions the market already reflects.

Q: What does the Provident Financial Services, Inc. (PFS) outlook hinge on?

The thesis depends on management continuing income growth and expanding wealth management, while maintaining its stated dividend commitment. A guidance cut or Fed rate cuts would be unfavorable; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from financial-sector bellwethers would support the sector backdrop.

NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$23.24+0.52%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Provident Financial Services, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.59 → 2.58 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	238.31M
EPS	—	0.627
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	926.23M
EPS	—	2.458
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	984.46M
EPS	—	2.584

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS at least $0.61 for fiscal year ending 2026-12-31	A primary condition in Provident Financial Services, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $0.61 EPS for FY 2026.	Intact	EPS guidance falls below $0.61 for FY 2026	Diluted EPS: $0.60 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.61 EPS for FY 2026. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Aug 7, 20260.6 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1ac75583-088a-41ee-bafc-abec0bc96706. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net income grows to at least $79M in Q1 2026	Provident Financial grew net income from $64M to $79M in one year.	Intact	net income falls below $79M in 2026-Q1	Net income: $78.147M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $79M net income in 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 7, 202678,147,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1ac75583-088a-41ee-bafc-abec0bc96706. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 4 consecutive quarters from 2025-Q3 to 2026-Q2. Net income increased from $71.7 million in 2025-Q3 to $78.1 million in 2026-Q2, while operating income rose from $101.6 million to $106.1 million. Management is delivering on income growth through expanding net interest and non-interest income. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain PE ratio below peer median of 11.98	A supporting condition in Provident Financial Services, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is PE <= 11.98.	Intact	PE rises above 12 without profit growth	P/E (TTM): 9.68x As of 2026-10-23; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Market data as of Oct 23, 20269.6833 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · TTM valuation Period ending Oct 23, 2026 Source: mart.stock_valuation_daily. Reference: PFS:2026-10-23. Source status: canonical calculation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Expand wealth management business after Lakeland Bancorp merger	The merger with Lakeland Bancorp boosts its wealth management business.	Intact	No growth or decline in wealth management revenue post-merger	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 quarters including 2026-Q2 and June 2026 announcement. Wealth management revenue contributed to growth with insurance agency revenue up 22% year-over-year. Beacon Trust manages approximately $4 billion in assets. Management is delivering on expanding wealth management business with continued focus on customer base growth and product innovation. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.58

$2.52 → $2.58 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$0.98B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.52	$983,360,200	6 / 5
2026-07-25	$2.52	$983,360,200	6 / 5
2026-07-26	$2.52	$983,360,200	6 / 5
2026-07-27	$2.52	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-28	$2.52	$983,360,200	6 / 5
2026-07-29	$2.52	$983,360,200	6 / 5
2026-07-30	$2.52	$983,360,200	6 / 5
2026-07-31	$2.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-01	$2.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-02	$2.55	$990,013,400	6 / 5
2026-08-03	$2.55	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-04	$2.55	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-05	$2.55	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-06	$2.55	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-07	$2.55	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-08	$2.60	$985,727,830	6 / 6
2026-08-09	$2.60	$985,727,830	6 / 6
2026-08-10	$2.55	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-12	$2.60	$985,727,830	6 / 6
2026-08-13	$2.55	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-14	$2.55	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-15	$2.55	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-16	$2.55	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-17	$2.55	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-18	$2.55	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-19	$2.55	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-20	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-08-21	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-08-22	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-08-23	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-08-24	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-08-25	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-08-26	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-08-27	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-08-28	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-08-29	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-08-30	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-08-31	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-09-01	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-09-02	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-09-03	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-09-04	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-09-05	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-09-06	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-09-07	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-09-08	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-09-09	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-09-10	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-09-11	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-09-12	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-09-13	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-09-14	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-09-15	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-09-16	$2.60	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-17	$2.60	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-18	$2.60	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-19	$2.60	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-20	$2.60	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-21	$2.60	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-22	$2.60	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-23	$2.60	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-24	$2.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-25	$2.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-26	$2.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-27	$2.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-28	$2.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-29	$2.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-30	$2.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-01	$2.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-02	$2.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-03	$2.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-04	$2.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-05	$2.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-06	$2.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-07	$2.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-08	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-09	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-10	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-11	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-12	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-13	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-14	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-15	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-16	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-17	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-18	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-19	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-20	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-21	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-22	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-23	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-24	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	4	1
2026-06-01	4	2
2026-07-01	4	2
2026-08-01	4	2
2026-09-01	4	2
2026-10-01	4	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS at least $0.61 for fiscal year ending 2026-12-31Diluted EPS: $0.60 per share
Net income grows to at least $79M in Q1 2026Net income: $78.147M
Maintain PE ratio below peer median of 11.98P/E (TTM): 9.68x
Expand wealth management business after Lakeland Bancorp mergerQualitative condition

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-14.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Provident Financial Services, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

PFS is a financial company with a moderate-risk, value-oriented profile, rather than a high-growth story. Its multi-year view remains intact, but confidence has eased from high to medium and management is rated volatile.

What's priced into Provident Financial Services, Inc.

PFS is described as cheap versus peers, with a modest expectations gap and low signs of fragile pricing. The evidence labels current pricing as justified, but does not provide enough detail to say exactly what earnings assumptions the market already reflects.

What the fundamentals likely do

Recent financial performance is strong: net income and operating income rose between 2025-Q3 and 2026-Q2, and the latest earnings event was positive. Wealth management expansion is on track, with insurance agency revenue up year over year; near term, a guidance cut or falling interest rates could weigh on results, while peer misses are a caution despite a low stated miss risk.

What Provident Financial Services, Inc. hinges on

The thesis depends on management continuing income growth and expanding wealth management, while maintaining its stated dividend commitment. A guidance cut or Fed rate cuts would be unfavorable; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from financial-sector bellwethers would support the sector backdrop.

Bottom line

Over the next 1 to 3 years, PFS’s long-term thesis rests on continued financial and wealth-management growth against a sector headwind and rate sensitivity. The setup remains intact, but confidence is medium and execution is a key swing factor. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	238.31M
EPS	—	0.627
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	926.23M
EPS	—	2.458
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	984.46M
EPS	—	2.584

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.58

$2.52 → $2.58 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$0.98B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.52	$983,360,200	6 / 5
2026-07-25	$2.52	$983,360,200	6 / 5
2026-07-26	$2.52	$983,360,200	6 / 5
2026-07-27	$2.52	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-28	$2.52	$983,360,200	6 / 5
2026-07-29	$2.52	$983,360,200	6 / 5
2026-07-30	$2.52	$983,360,200	6 / 5
2026-07-31	$2.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-01	$2.54	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-02	$2.55	$990,013,400	6 / 5
2026-08-03	$2.55	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-04	$2.55	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-05	$2.55	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-06	$2.55	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-07	$2.55	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-08	$2.60	$985,727,830	6 / 6
2026-08-09	$2.60	$985,727,830	6 / 6
2026-08-10	$2.55	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-12	$2.60	$985,727,830	6 / 6
2026-08-13	$2.55	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-14	$2.55	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-15	$2.55	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-16	$2.55	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-17	$2.55	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-18	$2.55	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-19	$2.55	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-20	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-08-21	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-08-22	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-08-23	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-08-24	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-08-25	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-08-26	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-08-27	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-08-28	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-08-29	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-08-30	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-08-31	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-09-01	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-09-02	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-09-03	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-09-04	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-09-05	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-09-06	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-09-07	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-09-08	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-09-09	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-09-10	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-09-11	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-09-12	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-09-13	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-09-14	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-09-15	$2.60	$985,720,433	5 / 5
2026-09-16	$2.60	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-17	$2.60	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-18	$2.60	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-19	$2.60	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-20	$2.60	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-21	$2.60	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-22	$2.60	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-23	$2.60	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-24	$2.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-25	$2.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-26	$2.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-27	$2.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-28	$2.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-29	$2.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-30	$2.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-01	$2.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-02	$2.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-03	$2.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-04	$2.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-05	$2.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-06	$2.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-07	$2.59	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-08	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-09	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-10	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-11	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-12	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-13	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-14	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-15	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-16	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-17	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-18	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-19	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-20	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-21	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-22	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-23	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-24	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings