Reading PBYI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PBYI free→Reading PBYI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PBYI free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly approach. However, risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may affect performance compared to peers, where it trades above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 41% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $7.07. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $7.07 PBYI trades at 12× p/e, below its 17× p/e peer median. Our $11 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 38% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.20x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated robust grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.07 → $0.07 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$163.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$403.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,578.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Health Care's growth rate impacts Puma's market position and future revenue potential. Slowing growth could signal challenges.
Confirms:Health Care revenue growth re-accelerates back toward its highs, above 10%.
Disproves:Health Care revenue growth is slowing down. It has fallen below 5%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PBYI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Puma Biotechnology, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein. The information in this Item 2.02, including the accompanying exhibit, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amende…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PBYI Puma Biotechnology, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management has raised the revenue guidance for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue guidance increased from $217.5M to $225.5M for 2026. Despite the increase, actual revenue in 2026-Q1 was $44.8M, down from $75.5M in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress towards the higher target.
“We are raising revenue guidance for 2026.”
“Full Year 2026... Total Revenue $214 – $221 million”
Management aims to achieve positive net income for the fiscal year 2026.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. Net income guidance for 2026 is $10M to $13M. However, the company reported a net loss of $3.75M in 2026-Q1, indicating a challenging path to achieving the positive net income target.
Management focuses on maintaining strong cash flow from operations.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Cash from operations increased from $9.7M in 2025-Q3 to $15.4M in 2026-Q1, showing a positive trend in maintaining operational cash flow. This indicates delivering on the priority of maintaining strong cash flow.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how Puma is doing financially. It can change how investors feel.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows revenue growth is speeding up again. It is now above 10% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue growth slowing below 5% year over year.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 26, 2026, Puma Biotechnology, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein. The information in this Item 2.02, including the accompanying exhibit, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Excha…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 6, 2025, Puma Biotechnology, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein. The information in this Item 2.02, including the accompanying exhibit, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934,…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 7, 2025, Puma Biotechnology, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein. The information in this Item 2.02, including the accompanying exhibit, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as ame…
“Full Year 2026... Net Income/(Loss)* $10 – $13 million.”
“Cash from operations was $15.4 million in Q1 2026.”
“Cash from operations was $14.4 million.”
“Cash from operations was $9.7 million.”
“Cash from operations was $14.1 million.”