Reading PB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PB free→Reading PB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PB free→NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with performance compared to sector peers being typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 6% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. If PB cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $71.17. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $71 PB trades at 13× p/e, in line with its 12× p/e peer median. Our $67 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 6% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.05x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.58 → $1.55 (-2.1% / 30d). 5 raised, 7 cut, 13 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 43% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$89.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$214.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,643.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: CPI data affects interest rates and how much people spend. This matters for banks.
Confirms one read:CPI shows an increase above 0.5% month over month.
Confirms the other:CPI shows a decrease or increase below 0.2% month over month.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PB yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
and Exhibit 99.1 of this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, and such information shall not be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PB Prosperity Bancshares | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 41 of 100 | full | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Finalize the acquisition of Stellar Bancorp, Inc. with all necessary regulatory approvals received.
Expand loan and deposit base significantly through recent mergers with American Bank and Southwest Bancshares.
Why it matters: Finishing this merger is important for growth. It will help Prosperity reach more customers.
Confirms:The merger is completed as planned on or before July 1, 2026.
Disproves:The merger is delayed or fails to receive shareholder approval.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a weakening position in the financial sector.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median of 12% over the next quarter.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median of 12%.
Why it matters: More people are filing for unemployment. This may show weakness in the economy. It could hurt banks.
Confirms:Unemployment claims rise above 300,000 for the week.
Disproves:Unemployment claims stay below 250,000 for the week.
Why it matters: This earnings report will show how the company is performing amid sector challenges. It will provide insights into revenue and profit trends.
Confirms one read:Revenue growth year over year exceeds the sector's median of 13%.
Confirms the other:Revenue growth year over year falls below the sector's median of 13%.
Why it matters: GDP data shows how the economy is doing. It impacts banks and how many loans people want.
Confirms one read:GDP growth is reported above 2% for the first quarter.
Confirms the other:GDP growth is reported below 1% for the first quarter.
Why it matters: Strong loan growth shows that recent mergers are working. It also shows demand for credit.
Confirms:Loans increase by more than 16% year over year in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Loan growth falls below 14% year over year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: High deposit growth shows that customers trust the bank. This means the merger is going well.
Confirms:Deposits increase by more than 14% year over year in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Deposit growth falls below 12% year over year in Q2 2026.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Merger Agreement On January 27, 2026, Prosperity Bancshares, Inc., a Texas corporation (“Prosperity”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Merger Agreement”) with Stellar Bancorp, Inc., a Texas corporation (“Stellar”). The Merger Agreement provides that, upon the terms and subject to the conditions set forth therein, Stellar will merge with and into Prosperity (the “Merger”), with Prosperity continuing as the surviving corporation in…
Other Events. On February 2, 2026, Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. (“Prosperity”) issued a press release announcing the closing of the acquisition by Prosperity of Southwest Bancshares, Inc. (“Southwest”). Pursuant to the Agreement and Plan of Merger, dated as of September 30, 2025, by and between Prosperity and Southwest, Southwest merged with and into Prosperity, with Prosperity continuing as the surviving corporation (the “Merger”), and following the Merger, Texas Partners Bank, a Texas bankin…
Other Events. Acquisition of Southwest Bancshares, Inc. On October 1, 2025, Prosperity issued a press release announcing that it had entered into a definitive merger agreement (the “Merger Agreement”) with Southwest Bancshares, Inc. (“Southwest”), a Texas corporation and bank holding company of Texas Partners Bank, a Texas banking association, pursuant to the terms and subject to conditions of which, Southwest will merge with and into Prosperity. On the terms and subject to the conditions of…