Prosperity Bancshares (PB)

NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$69.50-0.50%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Prosperity Bancshares’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

7.28 → 7.31 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	502.69M
EPS	—	1.612
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.75B
EPS	—	5.833
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	2.06B
EPS	—	7.308

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Manage debt and capital post-mergers	A supporting condition in Prosperity Bancshares's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain capital ratios and manage debt servicing without profit margin erosion over next 4 quarters.	Intact	Capital ratios decline significantly or debt servicing pressures margins	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS meets or exceeds guidance	The bank beats earnings estimates, with Q1 EPS up 13.6% to $1.50.	Intact	EPS falls below $1.16 in 2026-Q2	Diluted EPS: $1.67 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $1.16 for 2026-Q2. Same fiscal period as the stored target. Source published Aug 6, 20261.67 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 02f820a6-b4f3-423b-be1b-989fd8b85ebe. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Loans and deposits grow through mergers	Prosperity Bancshares grows loans and deposits through mergers, adding $3.35 billion loans and $4.15 billion deposits in Q1 2026.	Intact	Loans or deposits fall below $23 billion or $31 billion respectively in next 4 quarters	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Loans grew from $22.197 billion at 2025-Q2 to $25.028 billion at 2026-Q2 (+12.8%), and deposits grew from $27.473 billion to $32.600 billion (+18.7%) over the same period, primarily driven by mergers. Management is delivering on this growth priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$7.31

$7.17 → $7.31 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.06B

$2.04B → $2.06B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$7.17	$2,037,847,120	14 / 12
2026-07-25	$7.17	$2,037,847,120	14 / 12
2026-07-26	$7.17	$2,037,847,120	14 / 12
2026-07-27	$7.17	$2,037,847,120	14 / 12
2026-07-28	$7.17	$2,037,847,120	14 / 12
2026-07-29	$7.17	$2,037,847,120	14 / 12
2026-07-30	$7.17	$2,037,847,120	14 / 12
2026-07-31	$7.25	$2,046,480,980	14 / 11
2026-08-01	$7.20	$2,046,925,886	11 / 8
2026-08-02	$7.31	$2,049,265,980	14 / 12
2026-08-03	$7.27	$2,049,265,727	11 / 8
2026-08-04	$7.27	$2,049,265,727	11 / 8
2026-08-05	$7.27	$2,049,265,727	11 / 8
2026-08-06	$7.27	$2,049,265,727	11 / 8
2026-08-07	$7.27	$2,050,182,394	11 / 9
2026-08-08	$7.27	$2,050,182,394	11 / 9
2026-08-09	$7.32	$2,050,807,390	14 / 12
2026-08-10	$7.32	$2,050,807,390	14 / 12
2026-08-12	$7.32	$2,050,807,390	14 / 12
2026-08-13	$7.27	$2,050,182,394	11 / 9
2026-08-14	$7.27	$2,050,182,394	11 / 9
2026-08-15	$7.27	$2,050,182,394	11 / 9
2026-08-16	$7.27	$2,050,182,394	11 / 9
2026-08-17	$7.27	$2,050,182,394	11 / 9
2026-08-18	$7.27	$2,050,182,394	11 / 9
2026-08-19	$7.27	$2,050,182,394	11 / 9
2026-08-20	$7.28	$2,051,700,719	11 / 9
2026-08-21	$7.28	$2,051,700,719	11 / 9
2026-08-22	$7.28	$2,051,700,719	11 / 9
2026-08-23	$7.28	$2,051,700,719	11 / 9
2026-08-24	$7.28	$2,051,700,719	11 / 9
2026-08-25	$7.28	$2,051,700,719	11 / 9
2026-08-26	$7.28	$2,051,700,719	11 / 9
2026-08-27	$7.28	$2,051,700,719	11 / 9
2026-08-28	$7.28	$2,051,700,719	11 / 9
2026-08-29	$7.28	$2,051,700,719	11 / 9
2026-08-30	$7.28	$2,051,700,719	11 / 9
2026-08-31	$7.28	$2,051,700,719	11 / 9
2026-09-01	$7.28	$2,051,700,719	11 / 9
2026-09-02	$7.28	$2,051,700,719	11 / 9
2026-09-03	$7.28	$2,051,700,719	11 / 9
2026-09-04	$7.28	$2,051,700,719	11 / 9
2026-09-05	$7.28	$2,051,700,719	11 / 9
2026-09-06	$7.28	$2,051,659,302	11 / 9
2026-09-07	$7.28	$2,051,659,302	11 / 9
2026-09-08	$7.28	$2,051,659,302	11 / 9
2026-09-09	$7.28	$2,052,866,243	11 / 9
2026-09-10	$7.28	$2,052,864,335	11 / 9
2026-09-11	$7.28	$2,052,864,335	11 / 9
2026-09-12	$7.28	$2,052,864,335	11 / 9
2026-09-13	$7.28	$2,052,864,335	11 / 9
2026-09-14	$7.28	$2,052,864,335	11 / 9
2026-09-15	$7.28	$2,052,864,335	11 / 9
2026-09-16	$7.28	$2,052,864,335	11 / 9
2026-09-17	$7.28	$2,052,864,335	11 / 9
2026-09-18	$7.28	$2,052,864,335	11 / 9
2026-09-19	$7.28	$2,052,864,335	11 / 9
2026-09-20	$7.28	$2,052,864,335	11 / 9
2026-09-21	$7.28	$2,052,864,335	11 / 9
2026-09-22	$7.28	$2,054,428,348	11 / 9
2026-09-23	$7.28	$2,054,428,348	11 / 9
2026-09-24	$7.28	$2,053,450,015	11 / 9
2026-09-25	$7.29	$2,052,725,015	11 / 8
2026-09-26	$7.29	$2,052,725,015	12 / 9
2026-09-27	$7.29	$2,052,725,015	12 / 9
2026-09-28	$7.29	$2,052,725,015	12 / 9
2026-09-29	$7.29	$2,054,064,726	12 / 9
2026-09-30	$7.29	$2,054,064,726	12 / 9
2026-10-01	$7.29	$2,054,064,726	12 / 9
2026-10-02	$7.29	$2,054,064,726	12 / 9
2026-10-03	$7.29	$2,054,064,726	12 / 9
2026-10-04	$7.30	$2,053,981,642	12 / 9
2026-10-05	$7.29	$2,053,979,142	12 / 9
2026-10-06	$7.29	$2,053,979,142	12 / 9
2026-10-07	$7.29	$2,055,791,225	12 / 9
2026-10-08	$7.30	$2,056,609,634	12 / 9
2026-10-09	$7.30	$2,056,631,336	12 / 9
2026-10-10	$7.30	$2,056,634,634	11 / 8
2026-10-11	$7.30	$2,058,042,966	11 / 8
2026-10-12	$7.30	$2,058,042,966	11 / 8
2026-10-13	$7.30	$2,058,042,966	11 / 8
2026-10-14	$7.30	$2,058,042,966	11 / 8
2026-10-15	$7.31	$2,058,045,467	11 / 7
2026-10-16	$7.31	$2,058,042,966	11 / 7
2026-10-17	$7.31	$2,058,042,966	11 / 7
2026-10-18	$7.31	$2,058,042,966	11 / 7
2026-10-19	$7.31	$2,058,042,966	11 / 7
2026-10-20	$7.31	$2,058,042,966	11 / 7
2026-10-21	$7.31	$2,058,042,966	11 / 7
2026-10-22	$7.31	$2,058,042,966	11 / 7
2026-10-23	$7.31	$2,058,042,966	11 / 7
2026-10-24	$7.31	$2,058,042,966	11 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	6	7	1
2026-06-01	6	8	1
2026-07-01	6	9	1
2026-08-01	5	9	1
2026-09-01	5	9	2
2026-10-01	6	8	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 6 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 9

$77.00New observation · no comparable prior

BarclaysOct 5

$70.00New observation · no comparable prior

Morgan StanleySep 28 · prior Jul 6

$80.00 → $81.00+1.2%

$0$44.55$89.10

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Manage debt and capital post-mergersDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Loans and deposits grow through mergersDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-14.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Prosperity Bancshares outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

PB is a merger-led regional banking growth story, with a moderate risk profile rather than a clear turnaround. The thesis is intact this month, although confidence has eased from high to medium.

What's priced into Prosperity Bancshares

The valuation signal is mixed: PB is described as cheap versus peers, but it also carries a reported premium versus peers. The evidence labels expectations as justified, with low fragility, but does not specify what earnings or growth the market assumes.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, completed mergers have expanded assets and branches, while loans and deposits have grown; low, stable nonperforming assets and a steady loan-loss allowance support the credit picture. A July earnings beat is positive, but the sector backdrop is a headwind, and the evidence flags guidance cuts and a history of deep misses as risks.

What Prosperity Bancshares hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on PB maintaining guidance and turning merger-driven growth into durable financial performance. Credit quality and execution under the CEO transition also matter; sector momentum could help if bellwether banks continue to report strong results, while falling rates are identified as a sector risk.