Reading ONB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ONB free→
Old National Bank (ONB)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-15
Intact
$24.76-1.51%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well supported by cash. Management's recent track record has been neutral, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 8% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening, as it is priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. Key factors to watch include any potential guidance cuts from ONB and the performance of sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Banks - Regional
- Market cap
- $9.71B
- Employees
- 4,971
- IPO date
- 1995-08-14
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-28
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $24.76. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$25.91consensus
Range $24.85 – $28.74
vs price: -4% below
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$31.31consensus
Range $29.61 – $39.67
vs price: -21% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $25 ONB trades at 11× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $26 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $25–$29. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
10.5x
peer 12.2x · own history 10.2x
Premium
0.9x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
-3%
our forecast 37%
Our fair value
$25.61
range $22.58 – $28.74
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 3% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 37%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
92nd pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 1.03x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
30th pctl · Financials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bearish10 analysts, 70% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.63 → $0.63 (-0.5% / 30d). 2 raised, 5 cut, 10 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 70% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: financials is in growth, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth · theme capital-markets/rates.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-15
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$105.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$257.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,772.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 18d
Watch for net income growth in Q2 earnings
Why it matters: Growth in net income shows the bank is making more money.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Net income for Q2 increases by more than 10% year-over-year.
Disproves:Net income for Q2 shows a decline or growth of less than 5% year-over-year.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ONB yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting ONB and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If ONB raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-22), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If ONB cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-22), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping ONB and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would weigh on ONB and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-131mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On May 13, 2026 , Old National Bancorp ( the “Company”) issued a press release announcing that the Company’s Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.145 per share on its outstanding shares of common stock. This dividend is payable June 15, 2026, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on June 5, 2026. In addition, the Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $17.50 per share (equivalent to $0.4375 per depositary share or 1/40 th…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+1.9 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.