Old National Bank (ONB)

NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$25.32+0.64%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Old National Bank’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-2.7%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.89 → 2.81 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	732.38M
EPS	—	0.659
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	733.89M
EPS	—	0.664
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	2.88B
EPS	—	2.574
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	3.03B
EPS	—	2.814

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted noninterest expense at or below $354 million	Old National Bank keeps cutting costs, lowering noninterest expenses to $354 million.	Intact	Adjusted noninterest expense rises above $354 million next quarter	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Quarterly dividend at or above $0.145 per share	The bank steadily raises its quarterly dividend to $0.145 per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.145 next quarter	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net income applicable to common shares at or above $229.6 million	Net income rose to $229.6 million in Q1 2026.	Improving	Net income falls below $229.6 million next quarter	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.81

$2.88 → $2.81 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$3.03B

$3.06B → $3.03B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.88	$3,056,981,190	12 / 9
2026-07-25	$2.88	$3,058,357,480	12 / 9
2026-07-26	$2.90	$3,065,640,792	8 / 6
2026-07-27	$2.89	$3,065,468,600	12 / 9
2026-07-28	$2.89	$3,065,468,600	12 / 9
2026-07-29	$2.89	$3,063,913,040	12 / 9
2026-07-30	$2.90	$3,064,074,773	8 / 6
2026-07-31	$2.90	$3,064,074,773	8 / 6
2026-08-01	$2.90	$3,064,074,773	8 / 6
2026-08-02	$2.89	$3,063,913,040	12 / 9
2026-08-03	$2.90	$3,064,074,773	8 / 6
2026-08-04	$2.90	$3,064,074,773	8 / 6
2026-08-05	$2.90	$3,064,074,773	8 / 6
2026-08-06	$2.89	$3,063,135,260	12 / 9
2026-08-07	$2.89	$3,063,327,906	8 / 6
2026-08-08	$2.89	$3,063,135,260	12 / 9
2026-08-09	$2.89	$3,063,327,906	8 / 6
2026-08-10	$2.89	$3,063,327,906	8 / 6
2026-08-12	$2.89	$3,063,135,260	12 / 9
2026-08-13	$2.89	$3,063,327,906	8 / 6
2026-08-14	$2.89	$3,063,327,906	8 / 6
2026-08-15	$2.89	$3,063,327,906	8 / 6
2026-08-16	$2.89	$3,063,327,906	8 / 6
2026-08-17	$2.89	$3,063,327,906	8 / 6
2026-08-18	$2.89	$3,063,327,906	8 / 6
2026-08-19	$2.89	$3,063,327,906	8 / 6
2026-08-20	$2.89	$3,063,327,906	8 / 6
2026-08-21	$2.89	$3,063,327,906	8 / 6
2026-08-22	$2.89	$3,063,327,906	8 / 6
2026-08-23	$2.89	$3,063,327,906	8 / 6
2026-08-24	$2.89	$3,063,327,906	8 / 6
2026-08-25	$2.89	$3,063,327,906	8 / 6
2026-08-26	$2.89	$3,063,327,906	8 / 6
2026-08-27	$2.89	$3,063,327,906	8 / 6
2026-08-28	$2.89	$3,063,327,906	8 / 6
2026-08-29	$2.89	$3,063,327,906	8 / 6
2026-08-30	$2.89	$3,063,327,906	8 / 6
2026-08-31	$2.89	$3,063,327,906	8 / 6
2026-09-01	$2.89	$3,063,327,906	8 / 6
2026-09-02	$2.89	$3,063,327,906	8 / 6
2026-09-03	$2.89	$3,063,327,906	8 / 6
2026-09-04	$2.89	$3,063,327,906	8 / 6
2026-09-05	$2.89	$3,063,327,906	8 / 6
2026-09-06	$2.89	$3,063,327,906	8 / 6
2026-09-07	$2.89	$3,063,327,906	8 / 6
2026-09-08	$2.89	$3,063,327,906	8 / 6
2026-09-09	$2.89	$3,063,327,906	8 / 6
2026-09-10	$2.89	$3,063,327,906	8 / 6
2026-09-11	$2.89	$3,063,327,906	8 / 6
2026-09-12	$2.88	$3,061,695,116	9 / 7
2026-09-13	$2.88	$3,061,695,116	9 / 7
2026-09-14	$2.88	$3,061,695,116	9 / 7
2026-09-15	$2.88	$3,061,695,116	9 / 7
2026-09-16	$2.88	$3,061,695,116	9 / 7
2026-09-17	$2.88	$3,061,695,116	9 / 7
2026-09-18	$2.89	$3,066,241,014	9 / 8
2026-09-19	$2.89	$3,066,241,014	10 / 8
2026-09-20	$2.89	$3,066,241,014	10 / 8
2026-09-21	$2.89	$3,066,241,014	10 / 8
2026-09-22	$2.89	$3,066,241,014	10 / 8
2026-09-23	$2.88	$3,065,536,860	10 / 8
2026-09-24	$2.89	$3,065,536,860	10 / 8
2026-09-25	$2.89	$3,064,809,587	10 / 8
2026-09-26	$2.89	$3,067,060,605	11 / 9
2026-09-27	$2.89	$3,067,060,605	11 / 9
2026-09-28	$2.89	$3,067,060,605	11 / 9
2026-09-29	$2.89	$3,067,060,605	11 / 9
2026-09-30	$2.89	$3,067,058,655	11 / 9
2026-10-01	$2.89	$3,067,060,605	11 / 9
2026-10-02	$2.89	$3,063,686,903	11 / 9
2026-10-03	$2.89	$3,063,686,903	11 / 9
2026-10-04	$2.89	$3,063,686,903	11 / 9
2026-10-05	$2.89	$3,063,686,903	11 / 9
2026-10-06	$2.89	$3,063,610,958	11 / 9
2026-10-07	$2.89	$3,064,122,292	11 / 9
2026-10-08	$2.89	$3,064,122,292	11 / 9
2026-10-09	$2.89	$3,062,313,958	11 / 9
2026-10-10	$2.89	$3,063,222,292	11 / 9
2026-10-11	$2.89	$3,063,222,292	11 / 9
2026-10-12	$2.89	$3,063,222,292	11 / 9
2026-10-13	$2.89	$3,063,222,292	11 / 9
2026-10-14	$2.89	$3,063,222,292	11 / 9
2026-10-15	$2.89	$3,063,222,292	11 / 9
2026-10-16	$2.89	$3,063,222,292	11 / 9
2026-10-17	$2.89	$3,063,222,292	11 / 9
2026-10-18	$2.89	$3,063,222,292	11 / 9
2026-10-19	$2.89	$3,063,222,292	11 / 9
2026-10-20	$2.89	$3,063,222,292	11 / 9
2026-10-21	$2.89	$3,063,222,292	11 / 9
2026-10-22	$2.86	$3,046,316,796	11 / 9
2026-10-23	$2.82	$3,032,474,580	11 / 9
2026-10-24	$2.81	$3,027,463,377	11 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	8	3
2026-06-01	7	3
2026-07-01	8	4
2026-08-01	8	4
2026-09-01	11	4
2026-10-01	12	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 6 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Raymond JamesOct 22 · prior Oct 6

$29.00 → $28.00-3.4%

RBC CapitalOct 9 · prior Jul 23

$29.00 → $28.00-3.4%

$0$15.95$31.90

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted noninterest expense at or below $354 millionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Quarterly dividend at or above $0.145 per shareDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Net income applicable to common shares at or above $229.6 millionDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-17.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Old National Bank outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

ONB is a regional banking business with a steady-execution thesis, rather than a turnaround story. Its multi-year view is intact this month: recent financial performance is strong, though earnings quality is fragile and management execution is rated neutral.

What's priced into Old National Bank

The valuation evidence points to ONB being cheap versus peers, with the expectations gap close to neutral. The priced-in assessment is justified, and fragility is low because the evidence does not show a broad stack of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulence.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the latest earnings were in line after a prior-quarter earnings beat, and the reported miss risk is low. Across the supplied quarters, loans grew while the adjusted efficiency ratio improved; management also continued dividends and share repurchases. A sector headwind and fragile earnings quality temper the otherwise strong recent performance.

What Old National Bank hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on continued high-quality commercial loan growth and expense discipline without a guidance cut. A move to lower interest rates could weigh on the Financials sector, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.