Old National Bank (ONB)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-09
$25.41-0.78%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-09
Warn: Recent financial performance slipped notably this past month, though still top-half.
Old National Bank keeps cutting costs, lowering noninterest expenses to $354 million. Net income rose to $229.6 million in Q1 2026. The bank steadily raises its quarterly dividend to $0.145 per share. These show strong profit growth and shareholder returns.
Revenue is expected to decline about 9% next year. If net income or dividends stop growing, the bank's strength will weaken. Rising expenses or poor cost control could hurt profits.
The stock price is slightly above our valuation range and near analyst consensus. Analysts expect about 9% revenue decline next year. Our view is aligned with cautious growth but sees risk if earnings or dividends falter.
Breaks if: Adjusted noninterest expense rises above $354 million next quarter
Breaks if: Dividend per share falls below $0.145 next quarter
Net income falls below $229.6 million next quarter
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a moderate risk profile with elements of a turnaround. The current thesis state is cautious, as management has shown volatility, but recent financial results have been strong.
The market seems to have priced in a neutral valuation compared to peers, with a slight expectation gap. The stock is viewed as cheap relative to its peers, but there is a low tier of fragility due to execution quality.
Fundamentals are on track, with management focusing on organic loan growth and disciplined expense management. However, there is a moderate risk of missing future earnings estimates, given the company's recent history.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable backdrop for ONB. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could impact ONB's momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no new threats identified that could weaken the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
In the next 1-3 years, ONB's performance will depend on its ability to maintain strong loan growth and manage expenses effectively, while also navigating sector dynamics. Not investment advice.