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OnKure Therapeutics Inc (OKUR)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-15
Watch· this week
$4.200.00%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is low. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, OKUR trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 56% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. This analysis is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Health Care
- Industry
- Biotechnology
- Market cap
- $169.66M
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2021-03-19
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $4.20. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$9.49consensus
Range $5.79 – $13.20
vs price: -56% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$14.18consensus
Range $14.18 – $14.18
vs price: -70% below
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Re-ratinglow confidence
At $4.20 OKUR trades at 19× p/s — 2.0× the 9× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $9.61 fair value is low-confidence here. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
19.0x
peer 9.4x · own history —
Premium
2.0x peer
Growth the price needs
-56%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$9.61
range $5.85 – $13.37
WhyPeer anchor understates a real premiumValuation methods disagreeEarnings too small for P/E
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — value-trap risk12-month view
What's priced in
The price sits about 56% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
40th pctl · Health Care
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted 0.86x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Management & capital allocation
neutral5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
60th pctl · Health Care
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +10.6% / 30d, n=3for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-0.65 → $-0.58 (+10.6% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 83% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · Weeklyheadwind-9.9%sector vs S&P 500, 60d
via XLV
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutralProvisional
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-15
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
Not enough price history for this read.
How much price usually moves either way.
Not enough price history for this read.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $477.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
lowas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayMedium confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for updates on the new 2024 Equity Incentive Plan.
Why it matters: Changes to the incentive plan can impact employee motivation and retention. This may affect company performance.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:A press release will share new incentives or performance goals that match company aims.
Confirms the other:No updates or bad news from shareholders about the changes to the incentive plan.
Material event
as of 2026-06-15
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for OKUR yet.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like VRTX, REGN, and ARGX keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Healthcare sector momentum should keep lifting OKUR and other Healthcare names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If OKUR raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2025-11-06), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If OKUR cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2025-11-06), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like VRTX, REGN, and ARGX start missing or guiding lower, the Healthcare tailwind helping OKUR and other Healthcare names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If OKUR misses again next quarter like this past one (a big miss of -49% on the 2026-03-31 print), expect continued pressure. The Street usually keeps walking estimates down after consecutive misses.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-0413d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. OnKure Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) amended and restated its 2024 Equity Incentive Plan (the “A&R 2024 Plan”), effective as of June 3, 2026 upon approval by the stockholders of the Company at the Annual Meeting (as defined below). The amendments to the Company’s 2024 Equity Incentive Plan included (1) a one-time increase to the number of shar…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+1.1 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.