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Orthofix Medical, Inc. (OFIX)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical DevicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$9.41+2.28%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been steady. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, although OFIX trades above typical for sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 85% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. This analysis is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Health Care
- Industry
- Medical Devices
- Market cap
- $376.33M
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1998-09-03
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-04
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $9.41. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$63.81consensus
Range $63.81 – $63.81
vs price: -86% below
Method agreement — · 1 method
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$87.65consensus
Range $87.65 – $87.65
vs price: -90% below
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-year—
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $9.20 OFIX trades at 0× p/s, below its 3× p/s peer median. Our $60 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $12–$18. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
0.5x
peer 2.9x · own history —
Premium
0.2x peer
Growth the price needs
-85%
our forecast 14%
Our fair value
$60.02
range $60.02 – $60.02
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is above the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensive12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 85% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 14%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
59th pctl · Health Care
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -0.57x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
stable3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral1 analysts, 60% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.00 → $-0.03. 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 60% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 44.1% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: health care is in maturing (~0.5 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$144.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$372.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,331.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- score change · management_scoresmall change
Management rose by 8.2 points (from 41.7 to 49.9).
- label change · confidence_labelsmall change
Confidence changed from 'medium' to 'high'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayMedium confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA update in Q2 earnings
Why it matters: The target is $90M to $93M for 2026. This will indicate if they are improving profitability.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA was over $93M for 2026.
Confirms the other:Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA was under $90M for 2026.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for OFIX yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth re-acceleration in Health Care
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Downside triggers
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-116d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers. Approval of Amendment No. 5 to the Second Amended and Restated Stock Purchase Plan On June 10, 2026, Orthofix Medical Inc. (the " Company ") held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders (the " Annual Meeting "). At the Annual Meeting, the Company’s shareholders approved Amendment No. 5 (the " SPP Amendment ") to the Company’s Second Amended and Restated Stock Purchase Plan (as previously amende…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+1.7 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.