Reading OBT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OBT free→Reading OBT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OBT free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is mixed. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes, and the company has a capital-unfriendly stance. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate. Peer multiples imply a price about 14% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $35.46. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $35 OBT trades at 10× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $41 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 14% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 15%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.11x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.83 → $0.79 (-5.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 0.0% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$93.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$279.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,791.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Revenue growth trends affect overall sector performance. A drop signals potential weakness.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median of 15% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median of 15% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for OBT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events Orange County Bancorp, Inc., parent company of Orange Bank & Trust Company and Orange Investment Advisors, Inc. today announced a declaration of a $0.18 cash dividend per share of its common stock. The dividend will be paid on June 15, 2026 to shareholders of record on June 4, 2026. A press release announcing the declaration of the cash dividend is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
OBT Orange County Bancorp, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | fair | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
12 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
Departure of Directors of Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers (e) On March 19, 2026, the Boards of Directors of Orange County Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”) and Orange Bank & Trust Company, a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company (the “Bank”), adopted and executed an amendment to the Amended and Restated Employment Agreement with Michael J. Gilfeather, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Company and t…
Other Events Orange County Bancorp, Inc., parent company of Orange Bank & Trust Company and Orange Investment Advisors, Inc. today announced a declaration of a $0.18 cash dividend per share of its common stock. The dividend will be paid on March 16, 2026 to shareholders of record on March 4, 2026. A press release announcing the declaration of the cash dividend is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Other Events Orange County Bancorp, Inc., parent company of Orange Bank & Trust Company and Orange Investment Advisors, Inc. today announced a $0.05 increase and a declaration of a $0.18 cash dividend per share of its common stock. The dividend will be paid on December 16, 2025 to shareholders of record on December 4, 2025. A press release announcing the declaration of the cash dividend is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On September 25, 2025, Orange County Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”), the holding company for Orange Bank & Trust Company, a New York trust company, entered into Subordinated Note Purchase Agreements (the “Agreements”) with certain qualified institutional buyers (the “Purchasers”) and, pursuant to the Agreements, issued to the Purchasers $25.0 million in aggregate principal amount of the Company’s 6.50% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Subordinated Notes due 203…