Orange County Bancorp, Inc. (OBT)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-09
$37.90-0.71%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Orange County Bancorp steadily grows revenue and profits. Net income rose from $7.2M to $11.3M in 6 quarters. Revenue increased from $31.9M to $34.4M in the last year. The bank pays consistent dividends and trades cheaply with a PE of 10.7.
Profit growth could stall due to volatile management and recent soft guidance. Legal and capital concerns from recent filings may pressure earnings. Revenue growth is modest and could slow further.
The stock trades about 21% below our fair value near $46. Analysts expect about 4% revenue growth. Our model sees upside if the bank sustains profit and revenue growth above consensus.
Breaks if: EPS guidance falls below $0.93 for FY 2025 or later
Breaks if: net income falls below $11M in any quarter after 2026-Q1
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by management's priorities and recent financial performance.
The market appears to price in a low level of fragility, suggesting that OBT's execution quality is not fully reflected in its valuation. The stock is considered cheap compared to its peers, with a notable expectations gap.
Management is on track to grow net income and earnings per share, with recent results showing positive trends. While near-term risks are moderate, the company has a low probability of missing expectations.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC. Their ability to beat earnings and guide higher could support OBT, while any misses could negatively impact the stock.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: quarterly revenue falls below $34M after 2026-Q1
Overall, OBT's fundamentals are solid, but external factors in the financial sector will play a crucial role in its trajectory. Not investment advice.