Reading OBIO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OBIO free→Reading OBIO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OBIO free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, OBIO trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 59% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern occurs because it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $3.97. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $3.97 OBIO trades at 5× p/s, below its 9× p/s peer median. Our $9.58 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 59% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.00x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
11 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.44 → $-0.37 (+16.0% / 30d). 4 raised, 1 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 86% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$207.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$629.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,477.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If health care sector revenue growth speeds up, it could benefit Orchestra BioMed's performance.
Confirms:Health care revenue growth is speeding up again. It is now over 10%.
Disproves:Health care revenue growth continues to decelerate below 10%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for OBIO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Cash Bonus Plan On February 12, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “ Board ”) of Orchestra BioMed Holdings, Inc. (the “ Company ”), upon the recommendation of the Compensation Committee of the Board (the “ Compensation Committee ”), approved the 2026 cash bonus plan for all executive officers (the “ Plan ”), which: · establishes annual goals with mi…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
OBIO Orchestra BioMed Holdings Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 25 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
Other Events. On January 12, 2026, Orchestra BioMed Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release titled “Orchestra BioMed to Receive Up to $21 Million in Proceeds from Acquisition of Vivasure by Haemonetics,” which press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference.
Entry into Material Definitive Agreement. Termination and Right of First Refusal Agreement On October 24, 2025 (the “ Effective Date ”), Orchestra BioMed, Inc. (“ Orchestra ”), a wholly owned subsidiary of Orchestra BioMed Holdings, Inc. (the “ Company ”), entered into a termination and right of first refusal agreement (the “ Termination and ROFR Agreement ”) with Terumo Medical Corporation (“ TMC ”) and Terumo Corporation (“ TC ” and, together with TMC “ Terumo ”), pursuant to which that cer…
Other Events. On October 27, 2025, the Company announced the first patient enrollments in the Virtue SAB in the Treatment of Coronary ISR Trial (“ Virtue Trial ”), the Company’s U.S. IDE pivotal trial comparing its highly differentiated Virtue® Sirolimus AngioInfusionTM Balloon (“ Virtue SAB ”) to the AGENT paclitaxel-coated balloon, currently the only drug-coated balloon (“ DCB ”) FDA-approved for a coronary indication. The initial cases were successfully completed by the teams at The Christ…
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. The information required by this item with respect to the Termination and ROFR Agreement and the termination of the Distribution Agreement is included in