Reading NXTC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NXTC free→Reading NXTC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NXTC free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, it is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 80% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern occurs because recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. If NXTC cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1.96. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $1.98 NXTC trades at 2× p/s, below its 9× p/s peer median. Our $9.32 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 79% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.91x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-1.84 → $-1.92 (-4.3% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$383.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$1,019.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $8,626.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If health care sector growth picks up, it could benefit NextCure's performance.
Confirms:Health care sector revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains below 10% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NXTC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 7, 2026, NextCure, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The Company is furnishing a copy of the press release, which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished in this Item 2.02 (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or oth…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NXTC NextCure Inc | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Ensure sufficient financial resources to fund operations and capital expenditures into the first half of 2027.
Progress the SIM0505/CDH6 ADC Phase 1 dose escalation study and initiate dose optimization in ovarian cancer.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On March 5, 2026, NextCure, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the year ended December31, 2025. The Company is furnishing a copy of the press release, which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished in this Item 2.02 (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the ”Exchange Act”), or ot…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On January 23, 2026, NextCure, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing preliminary results that as of December 31, 2025, it had approximately $41.8 million in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities. The Company expects current financial resources to be sufficient to fund planned operating expenses and capital expenditures into the first half of 2027. Because the Company’s consolidated financial statements for the year…
are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including with respect to statements related to our cash runway and expectations for our business, operations and financial performance and condition, including the progress and results of clinical trials, development plans and upcoming milestones regarding our therapies. Any statements contained herein that are not statements of historical fact may be deemed to be forward-looking statem…
Other Events. On December 19, 2025, NextCure, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an at the market offering agreement (the “ATM Agreement”) with H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC (the “Agent”), pursuant to which the Company may sell, from time to time, up to an aggregate sales price of $14,500,000 of its common stock, $0.001 par value per share (the “Common Stock”), through the Agent. Actual sales will depend on a variety of factors to be determined by the Company from time to time, including, among o…