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Nextdoor Holdings, Inc. (NXDR)
NYSECommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-06-15
Watch· this week
$2.10-1.87%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and it has a capital-friendly approach. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, while compared with sector peers, it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 211% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Internet Content & Information
- Market cap
- $800.91M
- Employees
- 463
- IPO date
- 2021-02-12
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-06
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $2.10. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$0.80consensus
Range $0.51 – $2.04
vs price: +162% above
Method agreement — · 3 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$2.27consensus
Range $1.59 – $2.96
vs price: -8% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Re-ratinglow confidence
At $2.10 NXDR trades at 3× p/s — 2.9× the 1× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $1.98 fair value is low-confidence here. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
3.4x
peer 1.2x · own history —
Premium
2.9x peer
Growth the price needs
6%
our forecast 5%
Our fair value
$1.98
range $1.36 – $2.61
WhyPeer anchor understates a real premiumEarnings too small for P/E
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiveexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 6% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Communication Services names rated weak grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=701).
25th pctl · Communication Services
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -0.17x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
neutral4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Communication Services names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 63% for the rest of the cohort, n=271).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +33.3% / 30d, n=2for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-0.03 → $-0.02 (+33.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 20% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: communication services is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Mature by revenue growth · theme streaming/OTT.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-15
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$196.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$454.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,090.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
highas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · valuation_labelsmall change
Valuation label changed from 'full' to 'expensive'.
As of June 15, 2026, the valuation changed and became expensive. The sector backdrop fell, indicating a headwind for the company. The recent financial performance remained weak, and the risk level was high. The management stance was capital-friendly, while earnings quality was characterized as loss-making.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayMedium confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for Q2 earnings report on August 6, 2026
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Nextdoor can improve its loss-making status. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Nextdoor reports a smaller loss or some revenue growth from the last quarter.
Confirms the other:Nextdoor reports a larger loss or more revenue decline from the last quarter.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NXDR yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth cooling below 10% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like GOOGL, GOOG, and META keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Communication Services sector momentum should keep lifting NXDR and other Communication Services names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for NXDR and other Communication Services names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If NXDR raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-06), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If NXDR cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-06), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like GOOGL, GOOG, and META start missing or guiding lower, the Communication Services tailwind helping NXDR and other Communication Services names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-061mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Nextdoor Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued an investor update and press release (together, the “Investor Update and Press Release”) announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. The Company also announced that it would be holding a conference call on May 6, 2026 to discuss its financial results. Copies of the Investor Update and Press Release are furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respec…
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-0.6 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.