Nextdoor Holdings, Inc. (NXDR)

NYSECommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-10-23

$2.43-3.19%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Nextdoor Holdings, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	79.11M
EPS	—	0.003
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$76M–$78M	292.6M
EPS	—	-0.047
EBITDA	$6.5M–$8Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	327.16M
EPS	—	-0.037

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve high single-digit Adj. EBITDA margin in 2026	Profit margins are expected to improve to high single digits.	Improving	Adj. EBITDA margin falls below 5% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve 10% revenue growth in 2026	A primary condition in Nextdoor Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=10% YoY revenue growth in FY26.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26	Revenue growth: 14.53% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=10% YoY revenue growth in FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 202614.534589 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 33d40e46-bcb3-4680-9999-cc3d8c67669d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $65.1M in 2025-Q2 to $74.6M in 2026-Q2, a 15% increase year-over-year. Management raised full-year 2026 revenue growth guidance to low teens, consistent with the approximately 10% growth target. The trajectory is delivering with sequential revenue growth and raised outlook. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Implement $100M share repurchase program	A supporting condition in Nextdoor Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Repurchase up to $100 million shares in 2026.	Intact	Repurchase program is canceled or materially reduced	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$0.31B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$313,605,800	2 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$313,605,800	2 / 5
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$313,605,800	2 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$313,605,800	2 / 5
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$313,605,800	2 / 5
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$313,605,800	2 / 5
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$313,605,800	2 / 5
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$313,605,800	2 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$313,605,800	2 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$313,605,800	2 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$324,354,200	3 / 5
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$324,354,200	3 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$324,354,200	3 / 5
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$324,354,200	3 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	1	4
2026-06-01	1	4
2026-07-01	1	4
2026-08-01	2	4
2026-09-01	2	4
2026-10-01	2	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve high single-digit Adj. EBITDA margin in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve 10% revenue growth in 2026Revenue growth: 14.53%
Implement $100M share repurchase programRequired source inputs unavailable

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-50.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Nextdoor Holdings, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a speculative growth business with a fragile earnings profile, not a proven durable compounder. Its three-to-six-month thesis is on watch: revenue growth and recent margin progress are constructive, while performance remains below its industry cohort.

What's priced into Nextdoor Holdings, Inc.

NXDR carries a premium versus peers, and the evidence flags its valuation as expensive relative to weak execution quality. The expectations gap is elevated, but model confidence is low, so the market’s assumptions are uncertain; the valuation appears to rely partly on future opportunity rather than established earnings.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth has been strong: 2026 Q2 revenue rose 15% year over year, and management raised full-year growth guidance to the low teens. Adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 13% in Q2, though the full-year margin goal is around 10% and progress is rated mixed; the recent quality score decline, listing notice, and history of a deep miss add risk.

What Nextdoor Holdings, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on NXDR sustaining revenue growth and turning recent margin gains into consistent results. A guidance cut at the next call would be a meaningful negative, while easing rates or continued strong results from large Communication Services peers could provide a sector tailwind. The recent delisting-rule notice is also a key risk to monitor.