Reading NWBI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NWBI free→Reading NWBI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NWBI free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, with NWBI compared to sector peers being above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 6% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $14.55. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $15 NWBI trades at 11× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $15 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 6% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 16%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.90x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.32 → $0.34 (+4.7% / 30d). 6 raised, 0 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 13% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$74.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$255.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,397.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in net interest margin may mean lower profits and pressure on earnings.
Confirms:Net interest margin reported below 3.70% for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Net interest margin remains at or above 3.70% for Q2 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NWBI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On May 20, 2026, the shareholders of Northwest Bancshares, Inc. (the “Company”) approved the Northwest Bancshares, Inc. 2026 Equity Incentive Plan, which provides for the grant of stock-based and other incentive awards to officers, employees, directors and consultants of the Company. A description of the material terms of the plan is contained in th…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NWBI Northwest Bancshares, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to achieve record revenue growth for the fiscal year 2026.
Focus on expanding commercial and industrial loan growth, with a 28% increase year-over-year.
Continue to maintain strong credit quality with low net charge-offs and nonperforming assets.
Management aims to maintain an EPS of $0.34 for the fiscal year 2025.
Why it matters: If it drops below 10%, it shows slower growth. This can hurt investor confidence.
Confirms:Revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: A slowdown in loan growth could signal challenges in maintaining revenue growth and market share.
Confirms:Commercial and industrial loan growth was under 28% compared to last year.
Disproves:Commercial and industrial loan growth is at or above 28% year-over-year.
Why it matters: More net charge-offs may mean weaker credit quality. This shows poor risk management.
Confirms:Net charge-offs were above 0.16% for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Annualized net charge-offs remain at or below 0.16% for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in EPS guidance can affect investor trust and stock performance.
Confirms one read:Management confirms EPS guidance of $0.34 for 2025.
Confirms the other:Management cut EPS guidance to under $0.34 for 2025.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 27, 2026, Northwest Bancshares, Inc. ("the Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 (the "Press Release"). The Press Release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1. The Company also made available its first quarter 2026 supplemental earnings presentation on the "Investor Relations" section of its website. The information in the preceding paragraph, as well as Exhibit 99.1 reference…