Northwest Bancshares, Inc. (NWBI)

NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$15.48+0.26%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Northwest Bancshares, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.6%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.45 → 1.46 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	185.93M
EPS	—	0.351
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	726.49M
EPS	—	1.406
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	761.25M
EPS	—	1.456

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain strong credit quality with low net charge-offs	A supporting condition in Northwest Bancshares, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is net charge-offs remain below 0.5% of loans annually.	Intact	net charge-offs rise above 1% of loans in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Credit quality metrics remain strong with annualized net charge-offs at 0.15% and nonperforming assets at 0.69% in 2026-Q2. Management reports declines in non-performing assets and delinquencies, indicating delivery on maintaining strong credit quality amid loan growth. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Expand commercial and industrial loan growth by 28% YoY	Commercial and industrial loans rose 28% year-over-year, showing good demand.	Intact	loan growth falls below 10% YoY in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Average loans receivable increased from about $11.2B in 2025-Q2 to $13.1B in 2026-Q2, driven by 32% year-over-year growth in commercial and industrial loans. Management consistently highlights disciplined growth in national specialty verticals, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve record revenue growth in 2026	A primary condition in Northwest Bancshares, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is exceed $201.55M quarterly revenue by end of 2026.	Intact	annual revenue growth falls below 0% in FY26	Revenue: $205.14M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: exceed $201.55M quarterly revenue by end of 2026. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026205,140,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 8a1c1a0f-53e7-4017-ae57-fe20e3e53660. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $171.6M in 2025-Q2 to $205.1M in 2026-Q2, reflecting strong growth including 32% year-over-year average commercial and industrial loan growth. Management consistently emphasizes organic growth initiatives and expansion of financial centers, delivering on the record revenue growth trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.46

$1.44 → $1.46 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.76B

$0.75B → $0.76B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.44	$750,466,670	8 / 6
2026-07-25	$1.44	$750,466,670	8 / 6
2026-07-26	$1.44	$750,466,670	8 / 6
2026-07-27	$1.44	$750,466,670	8 / 6
2026-07-28	$1.44	$750,466,670	8 / 6
2026-07-29	$1.45	$754,566,670	8 / 6
2026-07-30	$1.45	$754,566,670	8 / 6
2026-07-31	$1.45	$754,566,670	8 / 6
2026-08-01	$1.45	$755,986,240	7 / 5
2026-08-02	$1.45	$755,986,240	7 / 5
2026-08-03	$1.45	$755,250,000	8 / 6
2026-08-04	$1.45	$756,571,954	7 / 5
2026-08-05	$1.45	$756,571,954	7 / 5
2026-08-06	$1.45	$756,571,954	7 / 5
2026-08-07	$1.45	$756,571,954	7 / 5
2026-08-08	$1.45	$759,621,500	8 / 6
2026-08-09	$1.45	$759,621,500	8 / 6
2026-08-10	$1.45	$756,571,954	7 / 5
2026-08-12	$1.45	$756,571,954	7 / 5
2026-08-13	$1.45	$759,621,500	8 / 6
2026-08-14	$1.45	$756,571,954	7 / 5
2026-08-15	$1.45	$756,571,954	7 / 5
2026-08-16	$1.45	$756,571,954	7 / 5
2026-08-17	$1.45	$756,571,954	7 / 5
2026-08-18	$1.45	$756,571,954	7 / 5
2026-08-19	$1.45	$756,571,954	7 / 5
2026-08-20	$1.45	$760,575,571	7 / 5
2026-08-21	$1.45	$760,575,571	7 / 5
2026-08-22	$1.45	$760,575,571	7 / 5
2026-08-23	$1.45	$760,575,571	7 / 5
2026-08-24	$1.45	$760,575,571	7 / 5
2026-08-25	$1.45	$760,575,571	7 / 5
2026-08-26	$1.45	$760,575,571	7 / 5
2026-08-27	$1.45	$760,575,571	7 / 5
2026-08-28	$1.45	$760,575,571	7 / 5
2026-08-29	$1.45	$760,575,571	7 / 5
2026-08-30	$1.45	$760,575,571	7 / 5
2026-08-31	$1.45	$760,575,571	7 / 5
2026-09-01	$1.45	$760,575,571	7 / 5
2026-09-02	$1.45	$760,575,571	7 / 5
2026-09-03	$1.45	$760,575,571	7 / 5
2026-09-04	$1.45	$760,575,571	7 / 5
2026-09-05	$1.45	$760,575,571	7 / 5
2026-09-06	$1.45	$760,575,571	7 / 5
2026-09-07	$1.45	$760,575,571	7 / 5
2026-09-08	$1.45	$760,575,571	7 / 5
2026-09-09	$1.45	$760,575,571	7 / 5
2026-09-10	$1.45	$760,575,571	7 / 5
2026-09-11	$1.45	$760,575,571	7 / 5
2026-09-12	$1.45	$760,575,571	7 / 5
2026-09-13	$1.45	$760,575,571	7 / 5
2026-09-14	$1.45	$760,575,571	7 / 5
2026-09-15	$1.45	$760,575,571	7 / 5
2026-09-16	$1.45	$760,575,571	7 / 5
2026-09-17	$1.45	$760,575,571	7 / 5
2026-09-18	$1.45	$760,575,571	7 / 5
2026-09-19	$1.45	$760,575,571	7 / 5
2026-09-20	$1.45	$760,575,571	7 / 5
2026-09-21	$1.45	$760,575,571	7 / 5
2026-09-22	$1.45	$760,575,571	7 / 5
2026-09-23	$1.45	$760,575,571	7 / 5
2026-09-24	$1.45	$760,432,714	7 / 5
2026-09-25	$1.45	$760,432,714	7 / 5
2026-09-26	$1.45	$760,432,714	7 / 5
2026-09-27	$1.45	$760,432,714	7 / 5
2026-09-28	$1.45	$760,432,714	7 / 5
2026-09-29	$1.45	$760,432,714	7 / 5
2026-09-30	$1.45	$760,432,714	7 / 5
2026-10-01	$1.45	$760,432,714	7 / 5
2026-10-02	$1.45	$761,247,000	7 / 5
2026-10-03	$1.45	$761,247,000	7 / 5
2026-10-04	$1.45	$761,247,000	7 / 5
2026-10-05	$1.45	$761,247,000	7 / 5
2026-10-06	$1.45	$761,247,000	7 / 5
2026-10-07	$1.45	$761,247,000	7 / 5
2026-10-08	$1.45	$761,247,000	7 / 5
2026-10-09	$1.46	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-10	$1.46	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-11	$1.46	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-12	$1.46	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-13	$1.46	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-14	$1.46	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-15	$1.46	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-16	$1.46	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-17	$1.46	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-18	$1.46	$761,247,000	7 / 5
2026-10-19	$1.46	$761,247,000	7 / 5
2026-10-20	$1.46	$761,247,000	7 / 5
2026-10-21	$1.46	$761,247,000	7 / 5
2026-10-22	$1.46	$761,247,000	7 / 5
2026-10-23	$1.46	$761,247,000	7 / 5
2026-10-24	$1.46	$761,247,000	7 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	1	7
2026-06-01	1	7
2026-07-01	1	7
2026-08-01	1	7
2026-09-01	1	7
2026-10-01	1	7

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain strong credit quality with low net charge-offsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Expand commercial and industrial loan growth by 28% YoYDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve record revenue growth in 2026Revenue: $205.14M

Next proof point

Oct 26, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-9.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Northwest Bancshares, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a regional financial company with a growth-and-credit-quality thesis, rather than a turnaround story. The thesis is intact and has recently shifted from mixed to mildly favorable, though recent overall financial performance is neutral.

What's priced into Northwest Bancshares, Inc.

The valuation evidence describes NWBI as cheap versus peers, with expectations close to the model’s baseline and low fragility. That suggests the current setup does not depend on unusually high expectations, but the evidence gives no basis for a precise valuation conclusion.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue and average loans have grown, including strong commercial and industrial loan growth, while reported credit measures remain strong. Two recent earnings beats and low estimated miss risk are supportive, but the sector backdrop is a headwind and the snapshot notes that peers have missed recently and NWBI had a deep miss in its recent history.

What Northwest Bancshares, Inc. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on management continuing its revenue and commercial loan growth while maintaining credit quality. A guidance cut or rate cuts would be unfavorable risks; continued earnings strength among financial-sector bellwethers would support sector momentum.