Novavax, Inc. (NVAX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-14
$9.59+1.80%
Close 2026-09-14 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-14
Research Workspace
Put NVAX beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Biotechnology is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue is contracting — down about 62% over the past year.
View GrowthManagement screens strong on margins.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 35% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskNovavax's growth relies on the success of its Matrix-M platform and partnerships. Revenue grew 76% year over year, and the last quarter beat expectations. It trades at 3.7× price-to-sales, below the peer median of 12×. The price reflects less growth than forecasted, indicating modest expectations. A potential risk is if NVAX cuts guidance after recently raising it, which could harm credibility. Peer multiples imply a price about 74% above where it trades. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-14. NVAX is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 9 analysts currently covering NVAX (as of Sep 2026).
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
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Compare NVAX with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVAX Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-14. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Biotechnology — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put NVAX next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Expand Matrix-M partnerships and licensing
Highlights partnerships that could enhance revenue growth.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-14. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Advances: Expand Matrix-M partnerships and licensing
Strengthens partnerships and licensing efforts for growth.
Advances: Expand Matrix-M partnerships and licensing
Partnership expansion supports growth objectives and revenue targets.
Advances: Achieve 2026 revenue of $230M-$270M
Matrix-M drives revenue growth, aligning with revenue targets.
Advances: Achieve 2026 revenue of $230M-$270M
Adjusted revenue forecast supports growth objectives.
Advances: Achieve 2026 revenue of $230M-$270M
Increased revenue outlook supports growth objective.
Advances: License agreement with Pfizer for Matrix-M
Licensing agreement with Pfizer supports revenue growth objective.
Loss of partnership with Sanofi impacts strategic positioning.