Novavax, Inc. (NVAX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-29
$10.47+1.45%
Close 2026-10-29 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put NVAX beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Biotechnology is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue is contracting — down about 62% over the past year.
View GrowthManagement screens strong on margins.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 35% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskNVAX’s case rests on sales growth, though its revenue trajectory has only one recent data point. Q2 FY2026 revenue grew 76% year over year, and GAAP earnings beat consensus. NVAX trades at 4× sales versus a 10× peer median, while its own historical multiple was 3×. The price reflects less growth than our forecast, despite the peer discount. Weak cash backing and reliance on Sanofi for Nuvaxovid commercialization could undermine that case. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 29%. Peer multiples imply a price about 68% above where it trades; this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-29. NVAX is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 9 analysts currently covering NVAX (as of Oct 2026).
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
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Compare NVAX with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVAX Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Biotechnology — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put NVAX next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Expand Matrix-M partnerships and licensing
Highlights partnerships that could enhance revenue growth.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-29. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Advances: Expand Matrix-M partnerships and licensing
Strengthens partnerships and licensing efforts for growth.
Advances: Expand Matrix-M partnerships and licensing
Partnership expansion supports growth objectives and revenue targets.
Advances: Achieve 2026 revenue of $230M-$270M
Matrix-M drives revenue growth, aligning with revenue targets.
Advances: Achieve 2026 revenue of $230M-$270M
Adjusted revenue forecast supports growth objectives.
Advances: Achieve 2026 revenue of $230M-$270M
Increased revenue outlook supports growth objective.
Advances: License agreement with Pfizer for Matrix-M
Licensing agreement with Pfizer supports revenue growth objective.
Loss of partnership with Sanofi impacts strategic positioning.