Napco Security Technologies (NSSC)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-29
$39.35-1.58%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put NSSC beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Electronic Equipment & Instruments is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Sustain gross margin near 90.4% in Q3 2026: Comparison needs review.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 8% over the past year.
View GrowthManagement screens strong on capital allocation, market reaction to earnings.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 25% growth a year, above the roughly 10% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 1% on a typical day and fell roughly 26% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskNSSC’s thesis rests on steady recent performance, though revenue growth slowed from 11.8% to 10.0%. Q4 FY2026 non-GAAP earnings beat consensus by 22.0%. NSSC trades at 25× P/E versus a 30× peer median. Yet the market is pricing in more growth than our forecast. Weak cash backing for reported profits raises execution risk. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 24.0%. The Q3 FY2026 gross-margin comparison needs review, so no confirmed breach is established. Peer multiples imply a price about 25% below where it trades; this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. NSSC is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 6 analysts currently covering NSSC (as of Oct 2026).
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
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Compare NSSC with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSSC Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Electronic Equipment & Instruments — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put NSSC next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Threatens: Sustain revenue growth and margin expansion
Record quarter indicates growth but raises concerns about sustainability.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Continue dividend program with incremental increases
Dividend raise supports capital allocation objectives.
Advances: Sustain revenue growth and margin expansion
Record revenue supports sustained growth and margin expansion.
Advances: Sustain revenue growth and margin expansion
Earnings beat and record revenue support revenue growth and margin expansion.
