Reading NSSC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NSSC free→Reading NSSC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NSSC free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is elevated. The sector backdrop is a tailwind, and compared with sector peers, NSSC is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 9% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. If NSSC cuts guidance on the next call, that could have a meaningful negative impact. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $37.49. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $37 NSSC trades at 26× p/e, below its 28× p/e peer median. Our $41 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 9% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.90x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2831).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.40 → $0.38 (-5.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 17.9% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$124.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$374.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,601.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This would signal a slowdown in revenue growth, which is a key priority for management.
Confirms:Q3 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q3 revenue growth stays above 5% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NSSC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On May 4, 2026, the registrant issued a press release to report results for the three and nine months ended March 31, 2026. This press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the exhibit attached hereto, is furnished pursuant to Item 2.02, and shall not be deemed to be "filed" for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Electronic Equipment & Instruments.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NSSC Napco Security Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | elevated |
KEYS Keysight Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ROP Roper Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
TDY Teledyne Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | full | moderate |
TRMB Trimble Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Information Technology names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=797).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to focus on achieving consistent revenue growth across quarters.
Continue to increase the dividend per share to return value to shareholders.
Focus on enhancing gross profit through operational efficiencies.
Why it matters: Litigation costs can have a big impact on net income. They also affect financial performance.
Confirms:Net income improves when litigation costs are not high.
Disproves:Net income falls because litigation costs are over $16 million.
Why it matters: Strong growth in service revenue shows demand. This supports overall revenue growth.
Confirms:Q3 recurring service revenue growth exceeds 15% year over year.
Disproves:Recurring service revenue growth falls below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: An increase in the dividend reflects confidence in cash flow and financial health.
Confirms:Management announces a dividend increase to more than $0.15 per share.
Disproves:Management keeps the dividend at $0.15 per share with no increase.
Why it matters: A gross profit margin over 60% shows strong pricing power and efficiency.
Confirms:Gross profit margin for Q3 exceeds 60%.
Disproves:Gross profit margin for Q3 falls below 58%.
REGULATION FD DISCLOSURE On April 30, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of $.15 per share payable on July 3, 2026, to stockholders of record on June 12, 2026. Information regarding this declaration is included in the press release furnished as Exhibit 99.1.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On February 2, 2026, the registrant issued a press release to report results for the three months ended December 31, 2025. This press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the exhibit attached hereto, is furnished pursuant to Item 2.02, and shall not be deemed to be "filed" for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On January 29, 2026, Joseph Pipczynski was appointed as the Company’s Chief Revenue Officer. Mr. Pipczynski will be reporting to Kevin S. Buchel, President and Chief Operating Officer. Stephen Spinelli, Senior Vice President of Sales, will report to Joseph Pipczynski. On February 2, 2026, the registrant issued a press release announcing the foregoi…
REGULATION FD DISCLOSURE On January 29, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of $.15 per share payable on April 3, 2026, to stockholders of record on March 12, 2026. Information regarding this declaration is included in the press release furnished as Exhibit 99.1.